There were no great shocks in the Tipperary South by-election result yesterday. Fine Gael had reason to be happy, although not delirious; Fianna Fail was disappointed and depressed; and the Labour Party, with a very poor result, was left wondering just what it all means.
The election of Senator Tom Hayes will give much-needed stability to the leadership of Michael Noonan. It is his first electoral win since being made leader in March. He and the party front bench agonised over whether to move the by-election writ before or after the summer recess. But he will certainly feel his decision is now vindicated with an electoral boost coming in the last week of the Dail session.
He and his colleagues can also relax in the knowledge that the chances of an early general election are even more unlikely. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, is left feeling more vulnerable and will certainly be in no rush to the country following this contest - his seventh by-election loss in a row.
Bruised from the rejection of the Nice Treaty, he will take little comfort from a result which saw his candidate, Mr Michael Maguire, in the unenviable position of being the second Fianna Fail candidate to be eliminated in a by-election.
The Labour Party was yesterday spinning the result as a good one. Although its candidate, Mr Denis Landy, performed very well in his native Carrick-on-Suir, receiving 80 per cent of the vote, his support plummeted to as low as under 2 per cent in Cashel and was little better in Tipperary town and Clonmel.
It is a worrying result for the Labour leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn. The party had a good candidate but never imagined it had a chance of winning the seat. However, it certainly hoped to do better than get over 12 per cent of the vote, down by 4 per cent on last year. Mr Landy was eliminated after the first count.
It was aiming at a general election and raising Mr Landy's profile in advance of that, but it knows now there is no longer a Labour seat in this constituency, which had been one of its few rural bases.
The reality is that the left-wing vote in Tipperary South is not going to Labour, making this constituency a safe bet for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in the future, with the third seat likely to go to Mr Seamus Healy, of the Workers' and Unemployed Action Group.
His colleague, Ms Phil Prendergast, was the runner-up yesterday, but the group was pleased her campaign had been effective in embarrassing the Government, particularly over the health services. The rise of WUAG has been slow but relentless.
In the words of one Fianna Failer at the count in Clonmel, Mr Healy, who received over 30 per cent support last year, isn't just strong in Clonmel, "he owns it".
Mr Maguire was eliminated after the second count, despite taking 26 per cent of the vote, 3 per cent higher than last year, compared to 37.5 per cent for the party in the general election.
Mr Landy's transfers allowed Ms Prendergast to leapfrog Mr Maguire into second place. Ms Prendergast received 24 per cent of the vote.
One senior Fianna Failer described it as being "a bit like groundhog day" for the party following the disappointing result.
His conclusion was that despite an apparently better candidate, a more united campaign and the lack of a major controversy hanging over the Government during the last few weeks, there was a "particularity" to this constituency and the people of the area had a "fixed idea about the line-up - one Fianna Fail, one Fine Gael and one left-winger, and they vote to copper-fasten that".
Senator Hayes, who received 35 per cent of the first-preference vote, almost 8 per cent more than he received in last year's by-election and 11 per cent more than the party's support in the 1997 general election, was running for the party seat left vacant by the death of Ms Theresa Ahearn last year. He was a good candidate and his high profile locally helped him considerably.
Mr Noonan was on hand to congratulate him on the win yesterday, and even the loss of the Munster hurling final by Limerick to Tipperary didn't dampen his good humour. He felt the win would give the party the momentum it needed as it faced a general election. Electoral history was made on Saturday when the people of Tipperary South became the first to vote in the Republic on a Saturday.
There had been much uncertainty as to how a weekend vote would affect the turnout but there was just over 1 per cent in the difference compared to last year, with 58.5 per cent of people coming out to vote.