Irish farmers and their representatives are not always the most optimistic people. Expressions of concern about an existing crisis and/or apocalyptic warnings about some impending catastrophe are not uncommon. At this stage, many urban dwellers probably take talk of a crisis in the farming community with a fair measure of salt. There have been other crises which blew themselves out. The McSharry CAP reform programme was supposed to lead to the devastation of the farming community in Ireland. Instead, it delivered even healthier subsidies.
Notwithstanding the pockets of real poverty in some rural areas, farm incomes in the past decade have proved remarkably resilient - even before the current era of bloom and boom. The article in Der Spiegel - an edited version appears in today's editions - may be intemperate in tone but it may reflect some unease in other EU capitals about Ireland's success at the negotiating table in Brussels.
For all that, it would be regrettable if the scepticism among urban dwellers in this State led the wider community to underestimate the extent of the problems in the farming community at this time. The harsh reality is that a combination of national and international events has led to genuine difficulties. This downturn afflicts virtually all sectors: Russia's economic turmoil has caused beef prices to decline by 15 per cent since June; the pig industry is also in trouble because of the economic turbulence in Asia. Even the weather has conspired against farmers: with many finding it impossible to harvest sufficient hay and silage, fodder prices have quadrupled in some areas. The Government has moved swiftly to ease some of the short-term problems. The package of measures announced last evening should help to alleviate matters, but with international events bearing down on Irish agriculture there will be concern that it will prove to be only a temporary palliative.
There are other, much more substantial, hurdles to be tackled, notably the EU plan for a further round of CAP reform as part of its Agenda 2000 package, designed to prepare the Union for enlargement. The Government can be expected to resist the Commission's proposals stoutly but substantial changes in a system of direct payments which is worth £940 million a year to farmers - or some 48 per cent of their income - appear inevitable. The next round of world trade negotiations in which Europe's generous system of farm subsidies will come under renewed pressure will also herald a challenging period for Irish agriculture. A great deal of strategic thinking will be required by policy makers to manage this period of profound change in Irish agriculture. The success of the Irish farm lobbying machine in Brussels over the past two decades is widely acknowledged but the debate is no longer about one premium or one payment. The challenge for the Government now is to frame a vision for Irish agriculture into the next century, as the Agenda 2000 proposals take root.