Yesterday's lethal suicide car-bomb outside the entrance to the government centre in Baghdad came on the first anniversary of Saddam Hussein's capture.
The chaos of the attack epitomises the creation of a coalition that was never there when he ruled Iraq - between his secular Sunni supporters and fundamentalist Islamists backing al-Qaeda. They have been brought together in resistance to the invasion and occupation of Iraq, led by the United States. This new coalition is crucial in relation to the elections planned for the end of next month and intended to begin the political normalisation of the country. Disrupting them is a central part of their strategy, in order to deprive an emerging regime of any legitimacy.
These are high stakes indeed for all concerned in the Iraq conflict. The intense US-led military assault on Falluja last month was aimed at delivering a decisive blow against the resistance movement. Critics who argued that this would at best displace resistance to other centres rather than eliminate it are borne out by the latest fighting in Mosul to the north of Falluja and in other towns and cities.
Reinforced US troop levels and efforts to draw Iraqi armed forces directly into the fighting have failed to change this pattern fundamentally. Together they have not been able to match their vast military superiority with the high levels of human intelligence necessary to penetrate the resistance - largely because they have failed to deliver everyday security and consequently win the trust of ordinary Iraqis. As the Iraqi interim president, Ghazi al-Yawar, said yesterday, last year's decision to dismantle the Iraqi armed forces entirely, instead of selectively reforming them, is now returning to haunt the US authorities and their Iraqi supporters.
It is a vicious circle which augurs badly for the elections on January 30th for an assembly to draft a constitution next year ahead of legislative elections on December 15th. Most Sunni leaders not supporting the resistance want the elections postponed for at least six months because there will not be sufficient security. So far, the electoral lists announced are dominated by the Shia community, which represents some 60 per cent of Iraqis - a profile seen by its neighbours as tilting the country closer to Shia Iran. There are very few Sunnis on the lists, despite the fact that Sunni leaders were traditional rulers of the country, in which they represent some 20 per cent of the population. The third major grouping, the Kurds (most of them Sunni), are keen to see elections held but are also concerned about security.
The determination to press ahead with the elections in these circumstances risks further polarising Iraq on ethnic and sectarian lines without resolving its deep-seated political and strategic problems. There is little prospect of forging a new unity from them unless there is a much firmer commitment to US withdrawal and a decisive internationalisation of its security.