The altered political landscape in Northern Ireland is posing serious problems for the ambitions of the Irish and British governments to restore the institutions of the Belfast Agreement. What was to have been a "short, sharp and focused review" of the workings of the international treaty in January has dragged on for months. The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister have now resolved to hold intensive negotiations with the parties over a number of days in September.
Yesterday's meeting in London involving Mr Ahern, Mr Blair and delegations from the Northern Ireland political parties was not expected to produce an agreement, given the differences of approach that exist between Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party. It was designed to lay the foundation for intensive negotiations in the autumn that could lead to an ending of all forms of paramilitary activity and a restoration of devolution. At this point, none of the parties is in any doubt about what is required to re-establish the Executive and the Assembly but they appear reluctant to take the necessary steps.
Mr Blair observed after the meetings that the four key issues were well known: paramilitary activity, arms decommissioning, stability of the various institutions and policing. His frustration was evident when he said if the September talks failed to provide an agreement, then the search would start for an alternative. Such a development could, he said, lead to the dissolution of Stormont because most people recognised you could not continue to pay politicians for doing nothing.
The Democratic Unionist Party fought and won the Assembly elections last November on a platform of devolved government and the renegotiation of the Belfast Agreement. It consolidated its position as the leading unionist party in the European Parliament elections. It has insisted that IRA arms must be decommissioned before Sinn Féin can return to the Executive. And it has resisted pressure to engage in an early deal, so as to avoid the kind of stresses that were placed on Mr David Trimble and the Ulster Unionist Party.
Buoyed up by electoral success on both sides of the Border, Sinn Féin has urged the governments to seek an early resolution of all outstanding issues. But, while the party has emphasised its willingness to deal with unionists, the continuing activities of the IRA have made that prospect extremely problematic.
We are down to the very fundamentals now. The political parties must maintain contact during the summer months if progress is to be made and their communities prepared for the changes that will eventually be required. Hard choices lie ahead if partnership government is to return. The governments are guarantors of the agreement. Now, and in the autumn, the same question will be posed: who will jump first, Sinn Féin or the DUP? And the answer, post elections, is obvious for all to see.