Another political earthquake in Europe, this time in the Netherlands, has inflicted serious damage on that country's centre-left parties. The breakthrough by the radical right-wing Pim Fortuyn List and the strong performance of the right-wing Christian Democrats in Wednesday's general elections came at the expense of the centre-left coalition, in power for eight years.
It makes sense to compare this result with political trends elsewhere in Europe, since they reflect similar concerns with crime, immigration and political identity and are likely to result in a shift of policy on these and other issues in the European Union.
There is a strong element of protest in this result, rather than a conventional electoral shift from left to right. Dutch commentators caution against too ready a comparison between the Pim Fortuyn party and extreme right-wing leaders such as Mr Jean-Marie Le Pen. Dutch politics have been stuck in a mould of coalition power-sharing for years, based on a careful balance between religious and political interests and managed by a colourless cast of politicians and technocrats. They have little social contact with the electorate who produced this result. It is a real shock to the system, a warning cry that the Dutch government must learn to address a new set of concerns as well as the new political priorities thrown up by the election. Significantly, the outgoing, irreverent personalities of the murdered populist leader Pim Fortuyn and the presumed incoming prime minister, Mr Jan Peter Balkenende, contributed a lot to their popularity.
Mr Balkenende has liberal policies on homosexuality and euthanasia, but wants to tighten immigration controls, introduce mandatory language and culture classes for immigrants, a pledge to the national flag and ensure they know the words of the Dutch national anthem. His likely coalition partners in the Pim Fortuyn list would stop immigration altogether, withdraw from the EU's Schengen system of free movement, build more prisons and withdraw from the European Parliament. There are some two million immigrants in the Netherlands, in a population of 16 million, 800,000 of them Muslims who have been poorly integrated within Dutch society and who are the particular targets of the new party. Their position has been dramatised by the election, posing a real challenge for right and left-wing parties alike.
This result also reflects dissatisfaction with the outgoing government's record on health and education. They were deprived of funds in recent years to ensure a balanced budget in line with the Stability and Growth Pact designed to stabilise the euro. Left-wing parties in Europe will have to absorb the lessons from this defeat along with a string of others in Italy, Austria, Denmark, Portugal and France. Forthcoming parliamentary elections in Germany and France will tell whether this is truly a continental trend.