The US presidential election campaign enters the home stretch with Mr George Bush and Mr John Kerry virtually even in the polls and presiding over deep divisions among the American voting public. Wednesday's final presidential debate did not alter these dynamics but reinforced both men's appeal to their core supporters.
The debates confirmed Mr Kerry's reputation as a strong finisher. But so far he has not established the commanding edge among marginal voters and states required to beat the incumbent Mr Bush. Realistically, it remains Mr Bush's election to lose.
The debates proved to be serious encounters in a campaign that has got more and more vicious on the daily trail and increasingly vacuous in the mobilisation of simplified images and distortions of fact in the advertising contest. Mr Bush has affirmed his core conservative values, projected his consistent leadership in a threatening world and revealed the ordinary likeable side of his personality which appeals to many voters. Mr Kerry has demonstrated his grasp of foreign and domestic policy, ability to make judgments about complex issues of justice and equality and appears more human and accessible as a result. He has been able to set the agenda much more than during the summer. In that sense both men won.
Highly polarised core constituencies and an electoral system which concentrates campaigning on swing states and voters mean a great deal will now depend on which side mobilises most effectively between now and November 2nd. Voter turnout will be crucial. Registration campaigns, especially on the Democrat side, could make a big difference - as will continuing left fringe support for Ralph Nader. Major events, whether in Iraq, the US campaign against terrorism or in the daily rhetoric of the final stages of this contest could determine the outcome. The Republican brouhaha over Mr Kerry's reference to Mr Dick Cheney's gay daughter in Wednesday's debate illustrates how central are conflicts over values arising from casual if calculated remarks.
This is one of the most important presidential elections ever held for the position of the United States in the world. That is why it has attracted so much international attention - and partisanship. The Iraq war crystallises the issues at stake between Mr Bush's unilateral reliance on coalitions of the willing to pre-empt threats and Mr Kerry's conviction that the US's multilateral alliances remain the best way to ensure its global hegemony. International opinion clearly favours Mr Kerry over Mr Bush in this contest - including in Ireland. Whether the two men are in fact as sharply polarised and would make a fundamental difference to the US role in the world is doubtful.
International hostility to the style and substance of Mr Bush's foreign policy must be firmly distinguished from anti-Americanism. Whoever wins will face a difficult task indeed matching his country's overwhelming military strength with its diminishing political influence and weakening economic performance in the world.