How close they have come

What a tantalising moment! How close they have come this time to bringing about final closure on all the outstanding issues that…

What a tantalising moment! How close they have come this time to bringing about final closure on all the outstanding issues that have plagued the peace process for 10 years: the decommissioning of arms and an end to the IRA as a paramilitary organisation, a guarantee of the stability of the political institutions, Sinn Féin's support for the new policing arrangements with the devolution of powers from London, and the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Martin McGuinness as First and Deputy First Ministers in government.

And then the most extraordinary agreement in the history of Northern Ireland falls down over the publication of the photographs. Both the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin become impaled on a hook where the publication of the photograph of the IRA arms is more important than the effective ending of the paramilitary organisation itself. The symbolism is more potent than the substance.

For all of that, however, the developments outlined by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, in Belfast yesterday are momentous. Who in their right mind would have thought 10 years ago, with the ceasefires, or six years ago, when the Belfast Agreement was ratified by referendums, that this unprecedented opportunity could come to pass?

The two governments, in their best judgment, envisaged that 100 per cent of IRA arms would be verifiably decommissioned by the end of December, the shadow Assembly would be established in January, agreement on the modalities for the devolution of justice and policing would be reached in February, and in March there would be confirmation of the Northern Ireland Executive alongside a plenary meeting of the North/South Ministerial Council. Gambles were being taken by the DUP and Sinn Féin in that time-frame.

READ MORE

Some tantalising questions are raised. Was the publication of the photographs the only gap between the sides at the end of the day? Had the IRA agreed to the wording in the draft statement issued by the two governments that it would "move into a new mode" and instruct all of its members to do likewise? Had the DUP signed up to the devolution of policing powers next summer? Would two clergymen act as independent witnesses when IRA arms were being put beyond use by Gen John de Chastelain? The status of these commitments is very important.

For, if the IRA's capacity to take photographs of the acts of decommissioning this month and permit them to be published when the Executive is formed in March is the only issue on which the unionist and republican extremes in Northern Ireland disagree, then unparalleled progress has been made.

If Dr Paisley is prepared to enter government with Sinn Féin provided that he has a photograph of the decommissioning acts, then it is too early to close the door on the outline proposals set out by the two governments yesterday.