Ireland remains unlikely to be a priority target for al-Qaeda, writes Rory Miller.
Ireland's limited practical contribution to the "War on Terror" and the occupation of Iraq means that we are not a priority target for al-Qaeda now that its self-imposed three-month suspension of operations is coming to an end and it has renewed its vow to carry out attacks in Europe.
But as long as Ireland's values and way of life are under threat we will never be safe.
The Government's decision to allow US aircraft access to Shannon during both the Afghan and Iraq wars increased Ireland's vulnerability to attack, given the fact that in January 2003 the Pentagon acknowledged that it had "credible intelligence" that terrorists planned to bomb civilian aircraft contracted to fly US forces to the Gulf.
While the Government's public commitment, since September 11th, to "eliminate this [al Qaeda] scourge" and its recent welcome to President Bush, combined with its Shannon policy did breach al-Qaeda's March 2004 "warning to nations to keep away from the civilian and military institutions of Crusader America and its allies".
But the fact that Ireland is not one of the 31 nations, including 11 members of the enlarged EU, which presently contribute military personnel to Iraq, or one of the 35 nations, other than the US, which make up the military coalition in Afghanistan, means it ranks far down the list of western targets.
Unlike Australia, targeted in the Bali bombings of October 2002 which claimed 180 lives, or Spain, which lost more than 200 of its citizens in the Madrid bombing last March, it is unlikely that Ireland will be the deliberate victim of what Osama bin Laden has euphemistically called "reciprocal actions".
Nor has Ireland, or the Irish, made it on to any of the numerous lists setting out al-Qaeda's intended victims which are periodically issued in the name of bin Laden or his senior associates, and almost always broadcast on the al-Jazeera television network or published on Internet websites linked to Islamist groups.
Ireland does not make the list of religious targets that include, in descending order of value (so to speak): American Jews, Israeli Jews, French Jews and British Jews, followed by the Christian inhabitants of the US, Britain, Spain, Australia, Canada and Italy. Nor does it make the list of countries - Spain, Italy and Austria - targeted because they had previously been under Muslim control and are now "occupied territory".
Nor do Ireland feature on the list targeting nations with large Muslim minorities (France, Germany, Bosnia, Kosovo, the Philippines, the former Soviet republics), whose overthrow is deemed necessary to ensure that Islamic law is established in all places that Muslims live.
However, while Ireland is not viewed as a key member of what bin Laden has termed the "Crusader-Zionist alliance", one list that Ireland does make is that of secular, democratic states that adhere to the norms of civilised society and participate in the global economic system.
For no one should doubt that, despite expressing specific and tangible goals and grievances (the withdrawal of non-Muslim troops from Muslim lands, the end of support for Israel) al-Qaeda is first and foremost a cultural phenomenon motivated by ideology and religious fanaticism rather than a defined set of limited political objectives or geographic boundaries.
As bin Laden explained in a statement broadcast by al-Jazeera in November 2001: "This war is fundamentally religious . . . Under no circumstances should we forget this enmity between us and the infidels. For the enmity is based on creed."
Al-Qaeda is the most potent expression of the extreme Islamist belief that a state of war exists between the Muslim world and the west. This belief provides a justification for the resort to violence, not only as an act of self-defence but as an integral part of the service to Islam.
If and when it becomes expedient or strategically worthwhile to target Ireland, al-Qaeda will not hesitate to do so. Neither our limited practical contribution to the war on terror nor the various attempts to distance the country from the Bush administration will matter much then.
Rory Miller is a lecturer in Mediterranean studies in King's College London, researching al-Qaeda's attitude to Europe