The year 2004 will be indelibly framed by the Indian Ocean tsunami catastrophe in its last days, the death toll from which seems certain to be in the hundreds of thousands.
The almost unimaginable scale of this disaster dwarfs the year's major events and their political consequences. It challenges a much more interdependent, closely communicating and yet increasingly unequal world to respond effectively and generously to the immediate and long term needs of the Indonesians, Sri Lankans, Indians and Thais most directly affected.
The earthquake which caused the tsunami is a natural event occurring in 60-100 year cycles; but its major effects on the coastal communities involved are social, hitting the poorest and most marginalised people most devastatingly. The fact that these regions are also attractive holiday destinations for some of the world's best-advantaged people has ensured this catastrophe is receiving maximum international attention. If lessons are learned, this can help to create a more generous engagement with the developmental and ecological issues posed by the tragedy.
Wealth and power determine most of the international affairs agenda. From that perspective the nations bordering the Indian Ocean are among the world's least advantaged and most numerous. That their livelihood is so vulnerable to ecological threat was cruelly exposed in the last week - not least in the virtually complete absence of the effective tsunami warning systems successfully put in place elsewhere in the world.
The most immediate need is to get drinking water, food and shelter to those affected and prevent disease doubling the casualties. The organisational and logistical problems involved are starkly exposed by this disaster. Determining priorities and how to deliver relief is a huge challenge for the national and international agencies. The world's poorest people badly need more effective standing structures through the United Nations to cope with natural, social and political threats on this scale.
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During 2004 the world awaited the outcome of the presidential election in the United States with almost as much attention as if this was an international ballot and not only an American one. President Bush's clear-cut victory, and the indications that there will be more continuity than change in US foreign policy, set out key parameters for the next four years. In 2005 much will revolve around how other powerful states adjust to these realities.
The coming year is therefore expected to stimulate the transition towards a new balance of international wealth and power. There is a growing realisation that notwithstanding its commitment to exercising military strength pre-emptively and if necessary unilaterally, the US has neither the economic resources nor the political capacity to achieve its international objectives without the systematic support of friends and allies.
A crucial factor for the second Bush administration will be the success of its policy in Iraq. The interim government dominated by the US remains determined to go ahead with the constituent assembly elections on January 30th, despite the rooted opposition of most Sunni leaders and parties and the ruthless response of the resistance. Perceptions of an orderly transfer of power to Iraqis and an eventual withdrawal of US troops are essential for US credibility; but it is a highly risky and uncertain business.
The US is gradually coming to terms with the emergence of a more coherent foreign, security and defence policy in the European Union, both complementary to and competing with NATO. This divergence of values and methods concerning international law, state sovereignty, the UN, the use of pre-emptive force and the role of religion was a marked feature of transatlantic relations in 2004 and is set to continue in 2005.
There is no mistaking the historic significance of EU enlargement this year. Furthering it with Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia by 2007, along with the opening of negotiations with Turkey, opens up the prospect of a continental power in Europe of a new kind, based on voluntary integration rather than imperial power projection.
Russia's geopolitical trajectory will be one of the principal international themes in 2005. Its solidarity with the Bush administration against terrorism, which was reinforced by the Beslan tragedy, was undermined by Russia's renewed suspicions over events in Ukraine. Mr Vladimir Putin's increasingly authoritarian policies would seem to project him more in an Asian direction. But this would underestimate the diversity and change in that part of the world evident through 2004. The story of China's phenomenal economic progress and political assertiveness overshadowed more gradual change in India and Japan's emergence from a period of sustained economic downturn and political passivity.
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2004 saw halting progress towards realising the Millennium Development Goals agreed over three years ago at a special UN summit. Pitched at child poverty, basic educational and health needs they remain valuable yardsticks of global solidarity, with most relevance to Africa and the communities affected by the tsunami disaster. The role of wealth and power in international agenda-setting seems to ensure they are marginalised in practice. Ireland's success in overseeing EU enlargement and achieving agreement on the constitutional treaty during its EU presidency this year shows that a small state can nevertheless significantly influence events.
Despite the Government's abandonment of its goal to reach the UN's 0.7 per cent aid target by 2007, a reinforced commitment to meet the longer term Millennium goals by 2015 would be an excellent New Year resolution.