An unnecessary crisis has been built up around Iran's nuclear programme, writes Mashhoud Nohasi.
In a region already suffering from upheaval and uncertainty, a crisis is being manufactured in which there will be no winners. Worse still, the hysteria about the dangers of an alleged Iran nuclear weapon programme rests solely and intentionally on misperceptions and outright lies. In the avalanche of anti-Iran media commentaries, conspicuously absent is any reference to important facts, coupled with a twisted representation of developments over the past 25 years.
Before the international community is led to another "crisis of choice", it is imperative that the public knows all the facts and is empowered to make an informed and sober decision about an impending catastrophe.
A vicious cycle of restrictions on Iran's nuclear programme and attempts by Iran to circumvent them through concealment and black market acquisitions have fuelled mutual suspicions. In this self-perpetuating atmosphere, the conclusion is already drawn that Iran's declared peaceful nuclear programme is just a cover for developing atomic weapons. But this conclusion is based on two erroneous assumptions, which have been repeated often enough to become conventional wisdom.
The first is that Iran has vast oil and gas resources and therefore does not need nuclear energy. Although it is true that Iran is rich in oil and gas, these resources are finite and, given the pace of Iran's economic development, they will be depleted within two to five decades. With a huge territory and a 70 million population, Iran has no choice but to seek access to more diversified and secure sources of energy. Availability of electricity to 46,000 villages now, compared to 4,400 just 25 years ago, as an example, demonstrates the fast growing demand for more energy.
To satisfy such growing demands, Iran can't rely exclusively on fossil energy and with an economic growth rate of nearly 7 per cent, it has to acquire the capability of producing 20,000MW electricity through building 20 nuclear power plants. This is based on a decision made by the parliament. Since the Iranian economy is still dependent on oil revenue, it can't allow the ever increasing domestic demand affect oil revenues from oil exports.
Producing fuel for its nuclear power plants is an integral part of Iran's nuclear energy policy. While domestic production of fuel for this number of nuclear power plants makes perfect economic sense, Iran's decision should not be judged solely on economic grounds. Having been a victim of a pattern of deprivation from peaceful nuclear material and technology, Iran cannot solely rely on procurement of fuel from outside sources. Such dependence would in effect hold Iran's multi-billion dollar investment in power plants hostage to the political whims of suppliers in a tightly controlled market.
Furthermore, it is self-evident that the time-consuming efforts to gain the necessary technology and develop the capability for fuel production must proceed simultaneously with the acquisition and construction of nuclear power plants. Otherwise constructed plants may become obsolete in a case of denial of fuel without a contingency capacity to produce it domestically.
The second false assumption is that because Iran is surrounded by nuclear weapons in all directions - the US, Russia, Pakistan and Israel - any sound Iranian strategists must be seeking to develop a nuclear deterrent capability for Iran as well.
It is true that Iran has neighbours with abundant nuclear weapons, but this does not mean that Iran must follow suit. In fact, the predominant view among Iranian decision-makers is that development, acquisition or possession of nuclear weapons would only undermine Iranian security. Viable security for Iran can be attained only through inclusion and regional and global engagement. Iran's history is the perfect illustration of its geo-strategic outlook. Over the past 250 years, Iran has not waged a single war of aggression against its neighbours, nor has it initiated any hostilities.
Iran today is the strongest country in its immediate neighbourhood. It does not need nuclear weapons to protect its regional interests. In fact, to augment Iranian influence in the region, it has been necessary for Iran to win the confidence of its neighbours, who have historically been concerned with size and power disparities. On the other hand, Iran, with its current state of technological development and military capability, cannot reasonably rely on nuclear deterrence against its adversaries in the international arena or in the wider region of the Middle East.
Moreover, such an unrealistic option would be prohibitively expensive, draining the limited economic resources of the country. In sum, a costly nuclear-weapon option would reduce Iran's regional influence and increase its global vulnerabilities without providing any credible deterrence. There is also a fundamental ideological objection to weapons of mass destruction, including a religious decree issued by the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran prohibiting the development, stockpiling or use of nuclear weapons.
The threat of referral to the UN Security Council will only further complicate the issue and will not alter Iran's resolve to exercise its legitimate and inalienable rights under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). At the same time, Iran is determined to pursue good-faith interaction and negotiations, based on equal footing, as the centrepiece of its approach to the nuclear issue.
A diplomatic and negotiated framework is the desired approach for a successful outcome and Iran is ready to consider all constructive and effective proposals. Iran welcomes consultations and negotiations with other countries to facilitate the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency and calls on EU3 (France, Germany and Britain) to replace the course of confrontation with interaction and negotiation to reach understanding and agreement.
Iran is committed to non-proliferation and the elimination of nuclear weapons, and considers nuclear weapons and capability to produce or acquire them as detrimental to its security. Iran will continue to abide by its obligations under the NPT and will continue to work actively for the establishment of a zone free from weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.
Mashhoud Nohasi is charge d'affaires at the embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Dublin