IBEC has proposed a strategy that the minister might be tempted to follow, but it is not one that will garner much support from the other social partners, in particular the public sector trade unions.
The publication by IBEC of its pre-budget submission signals that the process of framing the 2003 Budget is now entering its endgame. There is nothing in the submission that would not be expected from an organisation that represents the state's big employers. That said, the document serves as a reminder - if one was needed - that the coming budget will be arguably the most difficult in almost a decade.
In just over a month's time the Minister for Finance will have to square a circle that includes slowing growth, a revenue shortfall and demands for spending on infrastructure and essential services such as health. In the background is the spectre of inflation and the need to keep borrowing within the limits set by Europe in the Growth and Stability Pact.
Not surprisingly IBEC argues that business should not be expected to pick up the slack in tax revenues which undermined the budgetary arithmetic this year and will spill over into next year. It says there should be no clawbacks through measures such as increased taxes on work including employer's PRSI.Similarly the rate of corporation tax should come down to 12.5 per cent as scheduled, while VAT, excise duties on petrol and alcohol should be off limits.
IBEC has also warned that it would be a grave mistake to cut back on investment in infrastructure at this time. Instead, the employer's lobby group believes that the minister should look for savings in the cost of existing government services. Although the body is careful not to talk overtly of cuts, they are implicit in IBEC's call for growth in government spending next year to be in line with inflation and economic growth. A freeze in the number of public sector employees is also proposed, as is a postponement of the awards due under the benchmarking process.
As you would expect from such a well resourced body, IBEC makes a cogent case, but at the same time it must know that the chances of business being spared its share of pain in the Budget are slim - particularly given the extent to which the business community enjoyed the fruits of the boom.
Yesterday was the start of a rearguard action, and if IBEC can limit the downside for its constituency on Budget day, it will be able to consider itself to have done very well in the circumstances.