Inside Politics: Enda Kenny has learned a valuable lesson over the past two weeks that should prove invaluable during the long lead in to the next election. If he follows his instincts about what the Irish people want, and pays scant attention to the negative media commentary about himself and Fine Gael, he stands a real chance of becoming taoiseach in a year's time, writes Stephen Collins
It is an old adage that politicians worth their salt will only succeed if they provoke a considerable degree of criticism. Standing for something, particularly if it challenges the prevailing unthinking consensus, inevitably prods the critics into action, but it gets the attention of the public.
The political and media response to Enda Kenny's performance at the Fine Gael Ardfheis two weeks ago followed the classic pattern. He delivered a tough message on crime and unacceptable public behaviour, particularly in hospitals. The party of law and order loved it, many media commentators hated it and the public, as shown in the latest IrishTimes/TNSmrbi poll, decided that Fine Gael now deserved to be taken seriously as a potential party of government. If Mr Kenny can repeat the prescription at regular intervals, he will establish himself in the public mind as somebody who has what it takes to lead the country.
When he took over as Fine Gael leader in the party's darkest hour in 2002 he was widely regarded as a "nice guy" but not a potential taoiseach.
That perception changed after a very successful local and European election campaign in 2004 but Kenny still had work to do to show people that he stood for something, as distinct from simply criticising the Government. He has achieved that by stirring up the animosity of "the commentariat", who reacted so indignantly to the quite modest proposals he outlined in the ardfheis speech. That wave of criticism has been put in context by The Irish Times poll, which shows a significant rise in Fine Gael support and a dramatic slump in support for Fianna Fáil.
If the same percentage shares were repeated at the next election, Fine Gael would probably become the biggest party in the State and Fianna Fáil would find itself pushed into second place, something that has not happened since 1927.
There are few takers for such a far-fetched notion but, in the truly unlikely event that Fianna Fáil only polls 31 per cent of the vote next time out, it would inevitably happen. In his warm-up speech at the ardfheis, the party's director of elections, Frank Flannery, outlined a series of possible scenarios arising from the trend in a series of polls over the past two years. One of them was the far out possibility that Fine Gael could actually win more seats than Fianna Fáil. His extrapolations from the polls were designed to reassure the party members that the Fine Gael-Labour alliance had a real chance of winning more seats than Fianna Fáil, rather than promulgating the notion that Fine Gael could become the biggest party. Convincing the voters that the alternative government is in with a chance is the first step towards winning office.
The poll finding that the alternative government is 9 per cent ahead of the Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrat coalition has confirmed that a change of government is at least possible.
Whether or not it actually happens is, of course, another issue altogether. Fianna Fáil has been the dominant party in the State for almost 75 years and it will not relinquish power easily. Since the party first took power in 1932 its share of the vote has never slipped to anywhere near 31 per cent in a general election. For decade after decade it was consistently over 40 per cent, only dipping to 39 per cent in 1992 and 1997 before going back up to 41 per cent in 2002. If the party's vote slipped to the mid-30 per cent range, never mind the low 30s, the political landscape would be fundamentally altered.
The poll responses published today demonstrate how strong a grip on the public imagination Fianna Fáil still retains, yet they also show that it can be beaten, contrary to popular political wisdom. When voters were asked which of the alternative governments on offer they thought would win the election, a majority plumped for the current Coalition. However, when asked which combination they would vote for, a majority opted for the alternative Fine Gael/Labour coalition.
The responses demonstrate that Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte still have work to do to convince the public that they represent a real alternative. If the voters don't believe they have a chance of winning, then the task will be all that much harder when the campaign gets into full swing.
What will encourage the Opposition parties is the finding that, when it comes to election issues, the public seems far more concerned with getting better public services than with keeping the economic success story going. It seems voters don't believe that a change of government will do any damage to the economy but they do think that it might improve services. This is clearly very good news for Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte and bad news for Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney. The Opposition parties have gone out of their way to reassure the electorate that they will not increase taxes and it appears they are being believed. In contrast, the Government has placed a lot of store in trying to point up differences between Fine Gael and Labour and suggesting that they would not be able to manage the economy.
If the voters take a successful economy as a given, regardless of who is in office, and make their decision on the basis of who is capable of delivering better public services, then the alternative government will have successfully set the terms of the election debate.
If the Opposition parties can set the question, they will be a big step nearer to getting the answer they want from the electorate.