An extraordinary conjuncture of domestic and international circumstances surrounds President Clinton now that the House of Representatives has voted for an impeachment inquiry over the Lewinsky affair. He has adopted a fatalistic attitude to the decision, saying it is out of his hands now and in those of the Congress and the American people - a reference to the mid-term elections in three weeks' time. As the campaign comes to an end, Mr Clinton is confronted with a series of issues requiring his leadership, including the Kosovo crisis, the world economy and renewed instability in the Middle East.
Mr Clinton has a formidable reputation as a survivor in the midst of adversity, skills that will now be tested to their limits. And so far, he shows little sign of being hobbled by the impeachment threat. He has weathered the immediate threat of collapsing support within the Democratic Party in Congress, as only 21 members voted in favour of the impeachment inquiry.
Crucial now will be how the Democrats do in the elections, as their Republican adversaries increasingly admit. Mr Clinton's case that he has acknowledged his wrongdoing in the Lewinsky affair, apologised for it and is ready to move on, has convinced the party apparatus and seems to be borne out in the opinion polls. The clearly partisan aspect of the Republican case against him may rebound on them. Mr Clinton has also tried with some success to extract maximum political advantage from the row over budget priorities before Congress dissolves. He has just won agreement for $18 billion in vital extra funding for the International Monetary Fund. How the voters decide, will have an important bearing on his capacity to survive the crisis.
There is, nevertheless, plenty of scope for spinning out the impeachment process over a long period in order to weaken Mr Clinton politically. The judiciary committee must decide whether good grounds exist to recommend impeachment proceedings for "high crimes and misdemeanours". If so, the House votes on a simple majority whether to refer the matter to the Senate for a substantive trial. The Senate would then need a two-thirds vote in favour to convict him. Republican strategists clearly believe there is an opportunity to hobble Mr Clinton politically, even if he is neither impeached nor convicted. They have paid scant regard to the increasingly urgent pleas for a more expeditious resolution of the affair from influential voices in the US and around the world.
At this stage it is very unlikely that more evidence will emerge that might add to the case against Mr Clinton. Taking full account of his recklessness, political misjudgments and dishonesty over the Lewinsky affair, it must be said that the case against him does not merit impeachment. It does merit a severe rebuke from Congress, which has already indelibly affected his reputation by making him only the third president in over 200 years to have had impeachment proceedings opened against him.
For the sake of American citizens and the stability of the world's political and economic leadership it is essential that the matter be resolved speedily and decisively one way or another.