A spectre of democratic reform and political opposition is haunting Indonesia as President Suharto's 28 year term in office draws to a close. The crackdown on opposition parties and on the country's rapidly growing civil society in recent weeks has raised the possibility that his regime could come to an end in an explosive fashion, which could have grave consequences for the stability of south east Asia.
The Suharto period been a remarkable time, during which the country has made rapid strides in economic development, despite the highly unequal distribution of its fruits. The same applies to the political achievement in holding together a state consisting of nearly 14,000 islands and almost 200 million people, the fourth most populous in the world, despite the repressive techniques in East Timor and elsewhere that have attracted world wide criticism.
The central institution in this period has been the army, which was given a powerful role in socio economic affairs as well as in political administration Suharto used it to consolidate his position after the massacre of half a million alleged communists in 1965-6 prepared the way for him to succeed Sukarno.
The other bastion of his rule has been his extended family, the members of which have been given a free rein to develop the economy in co operation with Indonesia's versatile Chinese business community.
The results can be seen in the frenetic pace and undeniable achievements of economic growth and of human development, despite rampant corruption and gross inequality. The emergence of a new middle class in recent years and of a lively civil society, labour and student movements, have concentrated attention on these contradictions. They have now focussed on Sukarno's daughter, Megawati Sukarnoputri, as a result of a typical piece of highhanded authoritarianism by the Sukarno government. She was recently ousted as leader of the moderate (and legal) Indonesian Democratic Party, reportedly for fear that she would become a credible presidential opponent in the 1998 elections. The move crystallised opposition to the regime, leading to the worst street riots to have been seen since the 1960s and now to a highly publicised harassment of activists.
Inevitably, comparisons are being made with the other tiger economies in south east Asia, which have made the transition to more democratic forms of government in the last 10 years. In South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan similar social forces as are now visible in Indonesia have made much political progress; in Burma, another political drama is being played out between democratic forces and the military. In these other states armies have acted as midwives of democracy, but they have been facilitated in this task by a willingness of military and authoritarian leaderships to cede power.
This decidedly not the case in Indonesia, where sinews of power and to make few if any gestures towards political reform and where there is little sign that the army takes a different view. If he persists, in this course he is likely to force the pace of opposition political organisation and to stoke the fires of dissatisfaction which arise as much from the successes as the failures of his regime. Continued resort to the time honoured but discredited technique of labelling his opponents, as communist stooges is likely to hasten his own demise.