Research indicates that immigration into Ireland from central Europe afterEU enlargement will be a trickle rather than a flood, writes JohnFitzGerald
With two centuries of experience behind us, every family in Ireland understands the process of migration: the pressures to leave; the factors that affect where migrants go; the vicissitudes that migrants face; and, finally, why many people - our returning emigrants or "homing pigeons" - ultimately return here to live.
Given that we know so much about our own experience of emigration, it is surprising how many myths have developed around the reverse process, as foreigners come to live in Ireland.
The factors which saw so many of our parents' and grandparents' generations emigrate in the past are very similar for young people in central Europe. Emigration is difficult for those who leave and all the evidence indicates that, far from there being a "flood" of immigrants into Ireland from central Europe on EU enlargement, the reality will be closer to a trickle.
Thirty-five years of economic research into the process of emigration in Ireland, as well as extensive research elsewhere in Europe, generally confirms the popular understanding of the migration process. It provides vital information on how migration patterns are likely to evolve in Europe (and in Ireland) with the gradual extension of the borders of the EU.
Over 30 years ago, Prof Brendan Walsh, of UCD, quantified the factors driving the post-war generation to emigrate. His analysis, confirmed by many studies since then, showed that emigration is driven by differences in employment opportunities. The bigger the gap between earnings and unemployment rates in Ireland and elsewhere, the more likely are Irish young people to emigrate in a search for a higher standard of living. There has also always been an element of adventure about emigration, with young people seeking to experience life in other countries and cultures. A sixth of Irish young people now take a year out in Australia.
Emigrants have traditionally been young and single. Over the last two centuries, family emigration only occurred when economic conditions were catastrophic. This experience is mirrored elsewhere in Europe, where those emigrating are the young. So the pool of likely migrants from the EU accession countries is mainly limited to the young, single and mobile.
If, as the most pessimistic forecasts suggest, up to five million people, or a third of the population in the accession countries aged between 20 and 35, were to emigrate in the early years of EU membership, the effect on the supply of skilled labour in those countries would be dramatic. This would bring about a sharp rise in the wage rates being offered in order to retain skilled workers, which would sharply reduce the incentive to emigrate.
This impact of emigration on wage rates in central Europe has been ignored by most studies of migration. As a result, while EU enlargement will somewhat increase the flow of migration within the EU, the scale will still be quite limited.
Emigration choices are not just about money - cultural and family factors also play a strong role in the choice of destination. Over the past two centuries, the destination of Irish migrants has been significantly affected by where their aunts or uncles or siblings have gone before, providing a ready network to aid integration. For example, those who emigrated from the village of Kilcrohane in Co Cork a century ago went to Casper, Wyoming, not for the bright lights, but because their brothers and sisters had beaten a path there already.
Extensive research has shown that migration from central Europe into the EU has concentrated in Bavaria and parts of Austria, and future migrants are likely to follow their friends and relatives there. With few historical or family links between Ireland and Poland or Hungary, Ireland is a less likely first choice.
Potential emigrants with a choice of destinations will choose the one which is most attractive to them. As one Budapest resident said to me: "Vienna is boring and they don't speak Hungarian. Why would I want to live there?"
Although Ireland and the UK may gain in popularity as Eastern Europeans move to English as their second language, Dublin's high rents and poor public transport reduce its attractiveness to emigrants from Warsaw or Prague, who are used to excellent public transport and cheap housing.
For much of the 20th century, Irish emigrants, like their brothers and sisters whom they left behind, had limited education and skills. However, those leaving today have a higher level of education than those who remain behind. In turn, the Irish who return are more skilled than the Irish who leave; and, until very recently, the bulk of foreign immigrants were even more skilled than the returning Irish emigrants.
A recent German study also shows that emigrants from central Europe are skilled, having more extensive education than the average German. We have known for generations that Irish unskilled workers in the UK tended to do less well than their English counterparts, whereas those who were well educated did very well. Recent research confirms a similar pattern for immigrants from central Europe, which explains why unskilled migration is unattractive today for the less-skilled of Slovenia or Estonia.
Post-enlargement migration by EU citizens (including those from the new members) is likely to remain dominated by skilled young workers. Past emigration, from Ireland and Europe, raised the standards of living of those left behind as well as the incomes of the emigrants themselves. It also allowed the receiving country to grow more rapidly.
The same has been true of immigration into Ireland in recent years. A study with my colleagues Alan Barrett and Brian Nolan, to be published later this year, shows that the immigration of skilled labour into Ireland (both foreign and returning emigrants) has allowed the economy to grow faster than it would otherwise have done. This helped push up wage rates for unskilled workers, narrowing the gap in earnings between skilled and unskilled labour, and it made a significant contribution to solving the problem of unemployment. Immigration has thus played a very important positive role in the Irish economic success.
Recent research has shown that the skills and experience gained by emigrants abroad adds 10 per cent to their earning power (and their productivity) when they come back to Ireland. Were it not for the "importation" of such skills from abroad, the economy as a whole would be significantly poorer, as well as the individuals themselves.
With the drying up of the stock of Irish emigrants abroad, the economy will have a continuing need to attract skilled employees from outside Ireland. There is a danger that, because of poor infrastructure and expensive housing, Ireland will lose out as a destination for emigrants. We will have to work hard if we are to continue to attract a small share of the mobile skilled labour in Europe which we will need as our decline in birth rates in the 1980s works its way into a shortage of skilled younger workers.
The extensive research in Ireland and elsewhere on migration suggests that, far from enlargement causing a "flood" of unskilled migration from central Europe to the EU, the flows will be limited by the expectations of the potential emigrants themselves. Thus the extra numbers attracted to Ireland will be small. Those who do move will be well-educated with valuable skills. Ireland has fared well in recent years, partly as a result of skilled immigration. Therefore, we should welcome the prosperity and diversity which incoming migrants bring.
Dr John FitzGerald is a research professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute