Sending Israeli troops into Gaza could be a military, humanitarian and political disaster for both sides, writes Tom Clonan
AFTER FOUR days of air strikes on Gaza, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have signalled their intention to mount ground operations into the densely populated Hamas-controlled enclave.
An IDF "boots on the ground" operation within Gaza at this point - while designed perhaps to restore the bruised reputation of the Israeli military after the bloody nose inflicted upon it by Hizbullah in southern Lebanon in the summer of 2006 - could well prove to be a military, humanitarian and political disaster for both the Israelis and the Palestinian people.
In military terms, there has been a considerable delay - in excess of 72 hours - following the initial air assaults on Hamas targets prior to any ground incursion by Israeli mechanised units. Unlike the rapid invasion of Georgia by Russian troops earlier this summer - well within 24 hours of the first air and missile strikes on Georgian targets - the IDF have dragged their heels, in military terms, in assembling an invasion force on their border with Gaza.
Television images from the border area, which was only declared a "closed military zone" within the last 48 hours, show IDF artillery batteries deploying within range of Gaza's urban centres. This is an ominous development, and bodes ill for the civilian population, as the 155mm and 175mm artillery weapon systems used by the IDF are not "smart" munitions but consist of indiscriminate ammunition types referred to as "dumb" bombs by the international military.
The IDF have, consistent with previous incursions into the West Bank and Ramallah, deployed armoured units close to the Gaza Strip in apparent assembly areas for a ground assault on Hamas targets. Unfortunately for the IDF, and for the civilian population in Gaza, the 72-hour delay in mounting their mechanised assault will have allowed Hamas militants to melt into the civilian population and to use innocent Palestinians as human shields during any combat operations mounted in coming days and weeks.
While Palestinian militants have not mounted successful or costly attacks on IDF forces during incursions in the past, lessons may have been learned by Hamas from Hizbullah's recent successful combat operations against Israeli ground troops in Lebanon.
If Hamas has the will to resist and the ability to adopt the tactics used by Hizbullah, then the military and humanitarian costs of a ground incursion will be very high.
Hamas has already stated that it will "greet" IDF forces with hundreds of car bombs and suicide bombers in Gaza. It has also stated that it will launch "martyrdom" operations against Israeli targets.
The IDF infantry, despite being mounted in M117 armoured personnel carriers and supported by Merkava tanks, Apache helicopters and F-16 fighter jets, would be especially vulnerable to such a fanatical resistance within the tight confines of Gaza's teeming urban environment.
The IDF's modus operandi in such situations is to respond with devastating firepower, probing neighbouring streets and rooftops with 360 degree arcs of fire in order to neutralise the threat posed by resistance fighters and to minimise their own casualties.
The IDF is amply equipped to apply this devastating suppressive fire within Gaza in the event of a robust defence by Hamas militants. The civilian population, however, is ill-equipped to cope with the inevitable loss of life in this densely populated area.
As was the case in south Lebanon, if Hamas chooses to mount a meaningful resistance against the IDF in the coming days and weeks, the Israeli military may well suffer another bloody nose.
Hamas has nothing to lose at this point. The organisation of the Israeli military response to Hamas aggression has been heavy handed, badly co-ordinated and sluggish so far. It does not bode well for any of the parties to this renewed conflict.
• Dr Tom Clonan is The Irish Timessecurity analyst. He lectures in the school of media, DIT.