OVERWHELMINGLY WHITE, 60 per cent born again or evangelical Christians and heavily rural, the 100,000 or so Iowans who will vote in tonight’s Republican caucuses are hardly representative of the American electorate.
They have a poor record of choosing the Republican presidential nominee too, often plumping for social conservatives over the mainstream politicians who have traditionally won the party’s nomination. The Iowa caucuses play an important role, however, in winnowing the presidential field and setting the tone for the primary contests ahead.
Unlike a primary, which operates like a normal election with a secret ballot and polling booths open all day, caucuses require voters to show up at a specific time at a local library, school, church hall or community centre. They attract the most committed, engaged voters and for Republicans, that often means the most conservative.
The latest polls show former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney slightly ahead of Texas congressman Ron Paul, with former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum closing in on the leaders after a late surge. A victory for Romney in Iowa, a state he appeared to ignore until a few weeks ago, could herald an early end to the Republican race. He enjoys a huge lead in New Hampshire, which votes next week, and he has more money and a better organisation than any of his rivals.
For Romney, coming second to Paul would be almost as welcome as coming first. A radical libertarian, Paul has the youngest and most fervent supporters of any candidate. But some of his views, particularly on foreign policy, place him so far outside the Republican mainstream to make it all but impossible to win the nomination. Santorum, a social conservative, owes his last-minute surge to the support of evangelical Christians and the plunging poll numbers of former House speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas governor Rick Perry. If the polls are borne out tonight, Perry and Gingrich, Romney’s most formidable opponents in terms of money and organisation, could leave Iowa with their campaigns fatally wounded and the Republican race could be all but over by the end of this month.
This would be bad news for President Barack Obama, who would face in Romney the most well-funded, best organised and politically mainstream Republican candidate available. It might be better news for US voters, who can then leave behind the primary season circus and start a real debate about the country’s future.