Iran has come back into the international limelight after renewed criticism of its nuclear weapons programme by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Tehran has hidden aspects of its programme in its engagement with the agency, according to a damaging inspectors' report discussed yesterday at a board meeting in Vienna.
Coming after the victory of conservatives in last month's elections, this finding raises important questions about the integrity of the approach adopted by Britain, France and Germany to negotiate the issue rather than adopt a confrontational attitude as supported by the United States. The finding that Iran's leaders have not revealed all to the IAEA inspectors, coupled with a demand that the Iran file be closed because they have adhered to the agency's terms, will antagonise states concerned with nuclear proliferation.
Such fears have been reinforced by the news that nuclear arms matériel and know-how have been actively traded by senior research scientists in Pakistan, bypassing international controls on North Korea, Libya and other states suspected of developing nuclear weapons. The determination to deal with such dangers has been greatly strengthened by the recent example of Libya, which decided to relinquish such weapons and submit in full to IAEA inspections. Political argument continues as to why Libya decided to change its policy; was it because of the US military intervention in Iraq, or because of a desire to rejoin the international community through seeing off sanctions? While there is little or no stomach in the United States for another war in the Middle East the Bush administration remains frustrated by what it sees as an excessive willingness by European powers to indulge Iran.
Iran must take account of these new realities as it decides how to respond to renewed pressure. A credible international effort to prevent nuclear arms proliferation must include a readiness to deal firmly with recalcitrant states. The IAEA board must now decide whether to report Iran directly to the UN Security Council as in breach or give it another opportunity to co-operate with arms inspectors. A great deal is at stake in this confrontation, for Iran, the wider Middle East region and how European and American policy should relate to changes there in coming years.
The failure of Iran's reformist movement to deliver change may tempt its conservative rulers to take a more intransigent line on nuclear weapons, with dangerous consequences for all concerned. Non-proliferation policy must be geared to prevent that happening.