Shrewd calculations of advantage and strategies of manoeuvre are behind the latest political crisis in Iran, one of the most serious to have faced the country since the monarchy was overthrown in 1979.
The decision by the 12-man conservative Guardian Council to disqualify thousands of liberal candidates from the parliamentary elections next month, including 80 sitting members, has been planned and debated for months. The council, a watchdog appointed by the conservative supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, says they have an insufficient commitment to Islam and Islamic rule in Iran which are enshrined in the constitution. It has taken the decision to head off a possible reformist victory in the elections at a time when the reformist President Khatami has become increasingly unpopular. His prevarication and inability to resolve the policy impasse with the conservatives since he was elected in 1997 have lost him credibility in the eyes of many Iranians (two-thirds of whom are under 30).
Iran is fundamentally divided between the conservative clerics and their supporters, who control the judiciary, the armed forces and the state media, and reformists who dominate parliament and much of the political sphere. Their respective positions have been sorely tested by international events in recent months, as Iran came under pressure to have its nuclear facilities inspected by the International Atomic Energy Authority to ensure it is not making weapons of mass destruction. Iran's agreement was a clear gesture to the European policy of engagement and a rejection of the US one of confrontation.
But conservative strategists fear it has altered the balance of political power, an impression reinforced by the generous international response to the earthquake tragedy in Bam last month, in which upwards of 40,000 people died. That seems to explain their decision to provoke the reformists now. They hope to defeat them politically, consolidate their victory in next month's elections, use higher oil prices to create support and give themselves political room to manoeuvre an alternative route of political and social change under their own control.
If this is indeed their strategy it challenges Iran's secular and reformist forces to assert themselves in a very determined fashion over coming days and weeks. If they are prevented from winning through the ballot box they will be tempted to try more direct methods. The parliamentary sit-in and yesterday's threatened resignations by leading civil servants and ministers indicate what is at stake in a confrontation over Iran's political soul.