IRAQ’S GENERAL election outcome is still being negotiated one month on, but that is as expected. The UN-organised election’s fundamental legitimacy is not so far being questioned, the turnout at 63 per cent was more than adequate and the result saw a unifying Iraqi nationalism expressed more powerfully than a disintegrating sectarianism. Iraq is much the better for this in terms of retrieving its sovereignty from war and occupation.
The close result, in which no party gained even one- third of the vote, nevertheless produced an unexpected lead for the secular Iraqi National Movement led by Ayad Allawi over the existing prime minister Nouri al Maliki’s Shia-dominated State of Law grouping. That should give Mr Allawi the first right to form a government coalition – if Mr Maliki concedes that his narrow lead of 91 to 89 seats is valid. Mr Allawi will need the support of the third group, the Iraqi National Alliance led by the Shia cleric Moktada al Sadr, if he is to succeed – unless he can convince the fourth one, the Kurdish alliance, to support him along with smaller parties and independents. Although these party groups are broadly based on existing divisions within Iraqi society they are relatively new constructs and could throw up surprising combinations in any coalition government agreed. Mr Maliki is making a determined effort to hold on to power.
Mr Allawi’s background gave him an advantage in organising his campaign. A secular Shia, he appeals to Sunnis who were excluded from policy-making after the United States invasion and occupation in 2003 and were suspected of supporting the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein. Mr Allawi’s solid record in criticising that regime gives him credibility, as does his ability to attract support from other traditions in Iraq’s complex cultural mix and from Saudi Arabia and Turkey. He offers a refreshing change from the sectarian and increasingly authoritarian outgoing government of Mr Maliki, with its roots in Shia Islam and close links to Iran. His criticism of the opportunist de-Baathification which disqualified many candidates gained him extra votes. Iraqis also used the open list electoral system to reject prominent pro-American candidates.
Iraqi nationalism was a common theme in the campaign. Voters have supported blocs which want to maintain a strong central state and to retrieve their sovereignty from the continuing US presence. Ninety thousand US troops are still in Iraq, but they have withdrawn from urban areas and are legally committed to leaving the country within two years. Whoever forms the next government will be in power until 2014, so will have a big say in how this story unfolds. US expectations to have large military bases and lucrative oil contracts after they formally withdraw could be upset by this stronger and more assertive nationalism.
Iraq still faces immense problems with unemployment, economic and social redevelopment after the war and occupation, sectarian divisions and a still active campaign of terrorism by various unreconciled groups, as the weekend deaths show.