The project of writing a constitution for Iraq that would give legitimacy to its rulers is reaching a crescendo. A summit meeting of political leaders will be held on it today, following the return of Sunni representatives after a boycott.
Yesterday it was announced that the drafting committee will recommend next Monday whether to postpone the deadline for agreement by six months. If they don't the constitution must be agreed by August 15th, paving the way for a referendum in October and parliamentary elections in December.
Major issues divide the negotiators. The role of Islamic law is a central question, after a leaked draft clause proclaimed that "Islam is the official religion of the state and the main source of legislation". Many fear this would be used by Shia leaders to undermine women's right to divorce, inheritance and civic equality, reversing a positive achievement of the Saddam Hussein regime. The emergence of such a strong Islamic component certainly cuts across all the expectations of US leaders who promoted the invasion and overthrow of Saddam Hussein. The last thing on their mind was that it would end up as the Islamic Republic of Iraq.
Whether Iraq will be a federal or a unitary state is also central. The Kurdish parties insist they must have federal autonomy for their region, including control of natural resources. Shia parties are increasingly sympathetic to them and have now broached the prospect of a federal region in the south of Iraq. But this has reinforced the determination of Sunni parties to resist a federation on the grounds that it would break up the country. They are fiercely opposed - and the only way to wean them off this hostility may be to postpone. In any case they have a potential veto on the constitution, since if it is rejected in a referendum by two-thirds majorities in three of the country's current 18 provinces it will fall.
The Sunnis make up some 20 per cent of Iraq's population, but have enjoyed political and cultural dominance for centuries. This is why the resistance movement is concentrated in Sunni areas. The constitutional process has been especially targeted by the latest wave of suicide bombings and two Sunni negotiators were murdered.
Sunni resistance will not be overcome unless political talks on the constitution are directly linked to progress towards a genuine restoration of Iraqi self-rule. That means withdrawing foreign troops according to a timetable. Yesterday's remarks by US representatives that they hope to see a substantial reduction in their troop levels next year may be a step on the way to recognising this fundamental reality.