The two most interesting precedents for the emergence of a new party in the Irish political system were Clann na Poblachta in July 1946 and the Progressive Democrats in 1985. Both were led and defined by high-profile figures. Both emerged at times of economic turbulence and were initially presumed capable of transforming Irish politics.
In October 1947, 15 months after it was founded, Clann na Poblachta rocked the political system in three byelections. The party leader, Seán MacBride, was elected in a byelection in Dublin, his colleague Paddy Kinane took a seat in Tipperary, while on the same day in a byelection in Waterford, though Fianna Fáil held its seat, its vote was greatly reduced because of Clann’s performance. Fine Gael was relegated to third in all three constituencies. The results gave rise to a flood of speculation that this new party, which MacBride had deliberately designed to replicate Fianna Fáil in its original 1930s guise, could get an overall majority when the next election came.
Brian Farrell recounts how Seán Lemass was in London as the byelection results were announced and when Éamon de Valera telephoned to ask him “What would you do?” Lemass replied: “You are not the man I think you are if the Dáil is not dissolved before I get back.”
That evening de Valera announced that the Dáil would be dissolved after the Finance Act was passed in January. An election was called for early February 1948, even though Fianna Fáil had a comfortable majority and the Dáil had 18 months to run.
Such was Clann na Poblachta’s ambition that they actually ran two candidates in each constituency. On the evening of the poll their director of elections, Noel Hartnett, predicted they would win at least 45 and at most 75 seats.
In the election Clann na Poblachta won just 10 seats, with 13 per cent of the vote: an impressive performance for a new party but well below the initial expectations.
Clann na Poblachta did, however, join the broad collection of parties which formed the first inter-party government, removing Fianna Fáil from office for the first time after an 18-year stint in power.
The Progressive Democrats were launched at a press conference held in Christmas week 1985. Unlike the Clann, the core of the Progressive Democrats came from within Dáil Éireann. Dessie O’Malley, Mary Harney, Pearse Wyse and Bobby Molloy were all of elected for Fianna Fáil in 1982 and featured among the new party’s leadership.
Massive rallies
In their early weeks, the Progressive Democrats held massive rallies, packing out venues such as the Metropole Hotel ballroom in Cork and the Salthill convention centre in Galway. Hundreds signed up to join the party after O’Malley speeches on college campuses.
The first Irish Times MRBI poll published after the Progressive Democrats launched gave the party 25 per cent, putting it two per cent ahead of Fine Gael.When the election came a year later in February 1987 the Progressive Democrats won 14 seats on 12 per cent of the vote: again an impressive performance for a new party, but well short of the hype.
Seán MacBride didn’t realise his ambition of destroying and supplanting Fianna Fáil and Dessie O’Malley didn’t manage to “break the mould” of Irish politics, but they and their parties did make some impact in government.
These precedents, while instructive, are not a good guide to how a new party might fare in the current political environment, or more particularly when the next election comes in 2015 or 2016.
When the Clann and the PDs were launched, the new parties were seen as a means of transforming the party system. They each hoped to prise voters away from traditional patterns of voting Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.
Now, however, our system has already been transformed and the extent of that will be reflected in the next election, irrespective of whether or not a new party emerges before then.
The collapse of Fianna Fáil in 2011 and its failure to effect any substantial recovery since, and the collapse in support for the Fine Gael-led government since 2011, means that while Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael together traditionally got well over half of all first preference votes, they will be lucky to get 50 per cent combined in the next election.
Gap in the market
Michael McDowell was correct when he said recently that there was “a gap in the market” for a new political party in Ireland since both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have shrunk simultaneously. However the gap is not just available to a possible new political party or only to a centre-right party. Sinn Féin has expanded into much of the formerly Fianna Fáil space in the gap.
Many of the voters in this gap are in a very anti-party frame of mind. At this stage it would take a lot of political charisma and an impressive set of policies, not to mention lots of funding and organisation, for a new party to emerge and grow, even allowing for the available space.