The political importance of Israel's forthcoming general elections for the Middle East peace process, is underlined by this week's meeting of the Palestinian Central Committee which must decide whether to declare an independent state. Next Tuesday, the five-year interim negotiating period with Israel, under the Oslo accords, comes to an end. Progress in reaching agreement to implement its provisions with a reluctant Israeli government led by Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, has been tortuously slow. But it is expected that the President of the Palestine Authority, Mr Yasser Arafat, will convince the committee to hold off on the declaration - at least until the Israeli elections are held and probably until negotiations are completed with the new government.
Mr Arafat has been strongly advised to follow this path by European and US leaders consulted on his recent international trip to drum up support for the Palestinian case. A declaration of independence now would affirm entitlements under the Oslo agreements and appeal to the formal legal arguments put so often by Palestinian spokesmen. But it would alienate many Israeli voters and perhaps tilt the election results towards Mr Netanyahu - precisely the outcome Mr Arafat must be presumed least to favour.
He has a close knowledge of Israeli politics and knows very well that a victory for the Labour Party led by Mr Ehud Barak would be more likely to produce a rapid and favourable conclusion to the talks. According to all opinion polls, the results will be extremely close on May 17th. There is almost certainly going to be a second round of voting for the post of prime minister, for which there are five candidates. Given the extreme proportionality and consequent fragmentation and complexity of Israeli politics, whichever of the parties wins, will have a major job to assemble a coalition. There may be strong pressure to create a national coalition between Likud and Labour in order to reach a speedy and definitive end to negotiations with the Palestinians.
The politicians are well aware of some important trends among the electorate. Recent polls show a clear majority of Jewish citizens in favour of a Palestinian state. They have been convinced over recent years to contemplate the prospect more calmly, in the knowledge that whoever is elected has to ensure Israeli security requirements are provided for. The nearly one million-strong Russian immigrant community is skilfully positioning itself to benefit from such a close result and generally favours the peace process. Israeli politicians must also pay attention to the religious parties, which are having to fight more openly to maintain privileges and subsidies in an increasingly secular society growing impatient about many such practices. Arab citizens of Israel are expected to vote mostly for leftwing parties.
Israeli politicians are also constrained by their international obligations and the growing desire to reach peace agreements with surrounding states. All told, therefore, the Palestinians are well-advised not to make an empty gesture by declaring an independent state next week. They will better pursue their case by preparing to negotiate effectively with the new Israeli government, sure in the knowledge that Israel's own international partners will fully expect rapid progress to be made.