If it is true that this election is all "about the economy, Stupid" it is essential to recognise that the economy is all "about Europe, Stupid". The next five years in the EU are critical and how the Government will conduct policy in relation to Europe is central to Ireland's prosperity and well being. There are significant differences in approach. Voters have to consider which combination of parties would best represent Ireland's interests in the difficult processes and negotiations that lie ahead.
There are many challenges involved. A treaty making summit on the EU's institutions will be held just eight days after the election. Next year, a momentous decision will be made on joining a single currency. The CAP, the structural funds and the overall EU budget face critical renegotiation. Enlargement will bring greater competition as well as more opportunities for Irish exporters, and will probably provoke further examination of constitutional structures. European security and defence issues will challenge this State's declared military neutrality.
We should be aware of the scale and complexity of the issues at stake. Mr Frank Brennan, chairman of the Institute of Personnel and Development, has suggested that "Celtic Fox" is a better characterisation of the aptitudes Ireland will need in coming years than "Celtic Tiger" "small, hardy, clever, adaptable, indigenous and wary for its own preservation".
The outgoing Coalition has a strong record on EU affairs. Last year it ran a most successful EU presidency, demonstrating an impressive sense of common purpose on economic matters. On security, however, the Coalition partners have differences. Fine Gael believes we should join the WEU and NATO's Partnership for Peace. Lab our is willing to explore the Partnership but DL is against Irish participation. In government the Coalition simply put the issue into cold storage and concentrated on EMU and on preserving the interests of small states in the IGC. There are also important differences between the members of the alternative coalition. Fianna Fail favours EMU membership even if Britain does not join, whereas the Progressive Democrats have expressed reservations saying that Ireland must keep its options open. They are also divided on European defence and security. Fianna Fail opposes PfP membership as a halfway house to NATO. The PDs by contrast are more willing to join PfP and to become involved in European military cooperation.
There are other potential disharmonies within the two coalition blocs, not least on security issues. The Rainbow Coalition parties would not have the luxury of burying their differences on defence during the coming five years as they have done since they took office. And the potential for disagreement between Fianna Fail and the PDs over entry to the single currency is considerable. Neither coalition choice offers absolute certainty and stability.
But the greater and more immediate challenge concerns monetary union and the Rainbow Coalition is single minded in its approach on this. Committed Europeans who would wish to vote for Fianna Fail and the PDs in coalition would have to be certain that in this question, Fianna Fail can whip the PDs into line. A proEuropean who is less than certain of that would be better advised to vote for the Rainbow.