WHAT hope of an IRA ceasefire by polling day? Against the querulous bickering of the campaign, just imagine how such an announcement might affect the national mood. The scenes of emotion and joy would recreate in both parts of this island the kind of euphoria which gripped the British people, just three weeks ago, as the scale of the Conservatives' electoral defeat became clear.
On the political level, it would provide a tremendous boost for the Rainbow Coalition, silencing accusations that this Government failed to nurture the peace process and bears part of the blame for allowing the shining hopes of 1994 to slip away.
Alas, the answer must be "don't hold your breath". Like the overwhelming majority of people on this island I yearn for peace to be restored, but it now seems virtually certain that the process is going to be much more fraught with delay the second time around. All sides are bruised and mistrustful.
In some ways the mood of those republicans to whom I've spoken in recent weeks, and particularly since Tony Blair's speech, is reminiscent of the period leading up to the 1994 ceasefire. There is hope and a determination to try and get the whole peace process back on track, but added to this there is also extreme wariness.
This is seen as a make or break moment for Sinn Fein and the IRA. I've been told that they have to "get it right" this time because it simply would not be credible, even among their own supporters, to end the violence and commit themselves to democratic politics, only to change their minds weeks or months down the road.
Two themes come up again and again. The first concerns the long term intentions of the Labour government in Britain and its commitment to moving the peace process forward. The anger at what is seen as the last British government's mishandling of the ceasefire still runs very deep.
Much of this is put down to the old British reluctance to "stand up to the unionists", and suspicions on this score have not been helped by the Prime Minister's speech in Belfast last Friday.
The other question repeatedly posed is about the Irish Government and its ability to handle the forthcoming negotiations in a way that will guarantee the long term interests of Northern nationalists. Here again, there is a deep suspicion that Dublin either does not fully comprehend the task that lies ahead, or lacks the political will for it.
THAT is why it is unlikely that there will be any dramatic announcement of a ceasefire until after the election. We must hope that discussions between Sinn Fein and British officials, under way as I write, will bring a new element of trust. But Sinn Fein has always seen Dublin's role as crucial to hopes of achieving not just a ceasefire, but also the political settlement that is needed to ensure a durable peace.
The Irish Government was pivotal to the creation of the much maligned "pan nationalist front" which enabled Gerry Adams to persuade the IRA that the time had come to lay down the guns and pursue republican aspirations by political methods.
On this occasion, too, Mr Adams will want to see what shape of government emerges after the election. The Sinn Fein leadership has been bitterly critical of John Bruton's handling of the peace process, and it is no secret that it would prefer to see a government headed by Fianna Fail.
But suspicion of the Rainbow Coalition among Northern nationalist politicians is not confined to Sinn Fein. Senior members of the SDLP express similar concerns, albeit more discreetly. Dick Spring, who is seen as having kept the good ship Peace Process just about afloat during a particularly stormy period, is exempt from criticism.
But John Bruton is dismissed as having no serious understanding of the concerns of Northern nationalists, while Proinsias De Rossa is believed to be so consumed with hostility to Sinn Fein that he is blind to any other considerations.
THIS question of who will handle negotiations for the Irish Government has been given added urgency by Tony Blair's speech in Belfast. It has been widely reported that the tone of what Mr Blair had to say, his enthusiastic support for the Union, has shaken the republican grassroots.
It's always a pity that, on such occasions, those to whom the content of an important speech are directed are not present to see and hear what other people think. Listening to the Prime Minister at the Balmoral Show last week, one was left in no doubt about the reaction of businessmen, civil servants, other journalists and those "close to government thinking", as the saying goes.
They saw Mr Blair's speech as, primarily, a dramatic and daring attempt to break the current logjam by offering to talk to Sinn Fein without an IRA ceasefire. As important was the way he managed to do this without provoking massive unionist anger.
The real success of the speech was deemed to be that the Prime Minister's personal pledge of commitment to the Union had rallied David Trimble to support him, thus reassuring the broader unionist community that there was nothing sinister about the proposal to talk to Sinn Fein.
There were, perhaps inevitably given the speed with which the Prime Minister set about tackling the Irish problem, lapses of judgment. It was not sensitive to praise the continuing restraint of the loyalist paramilitaries on the very day that the whole community in Bellaghy was involved in burying Sean Brown, a good man who had been the victim of loyalist killers.
But as to the general thrust of his speech, Tony Blair seemed to spell out with great clarity what most of us reading or listening to him already know to be the nub of the case.
This is that Northern Ireland will remain part of the United Kingdom for the foreseeable future. That will be the case for as long as a majority of the people of Northern Ireland want it. There will be no change without their consent. But the Union must reflect and accommodate diversity. Domination by one tradition over another is unacceptable. New structures will acknowledge the importance of relationships within the island of Ireland and the special circumstances of Northern Ireland.
The task for both governments is to ensure that negotiations lead to a settlement which can accommodate the rights and aspirations of both communities equally, by guaranteeing equality of opportunity and parity of esteem.
By emphasising his own commitment to the preservation of the Union, Tony Blair has put it up to the Irish Government to ensure that the nationalist community in Northern Ireland is given equal reassurances about its future. That is the scale of task which faces the new government if it is to achieve the lasting peace that has eluded us for so long.