ANALYSIS:The conventional wisdom that the heave against Kenny has done serious damage to Fine Gael may be very wide of the mark, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
ENDA KENNY’S survival as Fine Gael leader is a tribute to his guts, determination and a considerable level of political skill. His response to adversity may or may not improve his public image, but it has certainly demonstrated that he has the qualities necessary to serve as taoiseach.
One of his leading opponents, Leo Varadkar, asked earlier in the week who people would like to have in charge of the country if the governor of the Central Bank rang in the early hours of the morning to say that there was a banking crisis. On the evidence of their actions over the past few days the answer has to be Enda Kenny, rather than any of his leading critics in Fine Gael.
With his deputy leader Richard Bruton and the majority of his front bench ranged against him, Kenny appeared to be in an impossible position when the revolt began on Monday – but he outfoxed and outfought them at every turn in the days that followed.
His trusty general in the campaign was Kilkenny TD Phil Hogan, who brought the uncompromising steeliness of his county’s hurling team into the political arena. Some of the younger frontbench rebels were stunned by the ferocity of the counter-attack and realised for the first time just what a tough game politics is.
For all that, one veteran TD who had been through the three heaves against former party leader John Bruton described the matter yesterday as “a tea party”. The crucial mistake made by the rebels was to assume that a majority looking their way on the front bench, which is supposed to contain the best and brightest in the party, would automatically translate into a majority in the parliamentary party.
The rebels hoped to present Kenny with a fait accompli at the frontbench meeting on Tuesday, and force him out without a struggle, but they made the mistake of leaking their strategy in advance to the media. Forewarned was forearmed as far as Kenny was concerned, and he moved decisively, first to sack Richard Bruton and then to dissolve his front bench.
In the meantime, Hogan had taken the campaign to the backbenches, and quickly assembled support. By the time the rebels marched out to announce their move on Tuesday afternoon, TDs, senators and MEPs had been canvassed by Kenny and his team.
Enough firm pledges of support were in the bag to deliver the winning vote yesterday afternoon.
By contrast, the Bruton campaign didn’t get around to contacting some of the backbenchers until Wednesday, and even potential supporters of change were insulted to be ignored until so late in the game. The approach fuelled a view of Bruton’s campaign as an attempt by an elite to dictate to the rest of the party who the leader should be.
A certain class element in this was played up by the Kenny supporters, who characterised the frontbench rebels as the comfortable “boarding school” boys, versus those who had gone to the local vocational or community school.
Of course this was a caricature, as not all of the frontbench rebels were boys, and not all of them went to boarding school. Still, enough of them came from comfortable backgrounds and had attended boarding schools to give the theory some credence. The fact that Richard Bruton went to Clongowes Wood, one of the most exclusive schools in the country, reinforced the message.
There has always been an element of tension in Fine Gael between the TDs who come from the professional upper reaches of society and the majority, who come from ordinary backgrounds across rural and urban Ireland. As far back as the 1920s, Richard Mulcahy complained about some of the well-off Cumann na nGaedheal elite by referring to the “Ballsbridge Complex” in the party. In the 1980s, the term “Donnybrook Set” was used to describe the upper echelons of Fine Gael.
Some of the rural TDs who form the backbone of the Fine Gael party had their loyalty to Kenny reinforced by the view that their “social betters” were out to depose him. A more widespread response was one of resentment among backbenchers at the assumption of the frontbench rebels that the rest of the party would automatically have to rally behind them. Anger at the timing of the heave – and particularly the fact that it had been triggered by an opinion poll – also fed into the mood.
On top of that, Bruton gave some poor media performances, during which he allowed himself to be cornered into saying he would not serve on the front bench if Kenny won. Even worse, he cast aspersions on Kenny’s ability to lead the country. Some of his own supporters were aghast at these hostages to fortune, and the remarks certainly didn’t help his cause.
After his victory yesterday, Kenny said he would ignore such statements, made in the heat of battle, and emphasised that he would be offering frontbench positions to people who had opposed him. He postponed his planned reshuffle from next Monday to allow things to calm down before approaches are made.
Now that Kenny has won, however, the arguments employed by his opponents won’t go away. For whatever reason, his warm and engaging private persona does not come across on television, and there is nothing he can do about it at this stage except to be careful about the kind of programmes he appears on. He also needs to ensure that he is always adequately prepared for media appearances and Dáil set pieces.
The party also has to accept that its leader is a country TD who is never likely to click with the urban middle classes and sections of the media, but that doesn’t mean he can’t lead them to victory in the next election. Labour will certainly gain more seats in the urban areas, but that doesn’t mean it will overtake Fine Gael or come anywhere near it.
Kenny and his TDs need to steel themselves to ignore whatever the next poll says. Former PD senator Ciarán Cannon made the point during the leadership debate that the opinion poll question about satisfaction with party leaders is almost meaningless. He pointed out that in the final poll before the last election, Gerry Adams had a higher satisfaction rating than Enda Kenny, and Sinn Féin won four seats, as against 51 for Fine Gael.
The conventional wisdom that the heave against Kenny has done serious damage to Fine Gael may also be very wide of the mark and the next poll could show them going up rather than down. The controversy generated excitement and attracted a huge level of public attention, which may do the party no harm at all. The fact that there was such an open and relatively rancour-free debate about the party’s future may well be beneficial for Fine Gael in the long term.
At his press conference after the meeting yesterday, Kenny’s tone was perfect. There was no triumphalism or gloating in victory. Instead, there was a pledge to listen to what both sides had to say during the meeting, and to take account of the criticisms made by his opponents. Whatever the margin of victory, the leadership issue is now settled until after the next election, and that was accepted by all the rebels.
If Enda Kenny does achieve his ambition of becoming taoiseach some time in the next two years he will have earned it by the way he responded to the heave against his leadership – and the way he handled himself having achieved victory.
Stephen Collins is Political Editor