Kosovo's declaration of independence yesterday comes at the end of a prolonged struggle against Serbian rule which was continually frustrated, repressed and rejected as Yugoslavia broke up. These successive crises made its independence politically inevitable. Following the vicious campaign mounted by Slobodan Milosevic against Kosovo in 1998-9, and the Nato bombing campaign in retaliation, there has been no let-up in the demands for full sovereignty. Most European Union member-states, including Ireland, have rightly concluded that this should finally be supported, despite the refusal of Serbia and Russia to accept that.
Legally this is a regrettable and unsatisfactory state of affairs. It means the United Nations cannot formally endorse Kosovan independence, since Russia demands it be declared null and void. Although Serbia has pledged not to use military force in retaliation, it will be able to mount economic sanctions against the new state, which is highly dependent on it economically. If Serbian leaders systematically follow this course they will reopen all the issues which have delayed their association and accession negotiations with the EU. Their people are deeply divided on whether to follow such an intransigent path along with Russia. But President Boris Tadic's recent re-election showed clearly that a majority would prefer to keep the EU option open.
Serbian representatives boycotted yesterday's session of parliament where independence was declared. But so far there is no evidence of a mass migration and only scattered violence is reported.
Kosovan leaders insist minority rights will be respected, as their constitution and international agreements fully commit them to. Any departure from that course would backfire in the political and diplomatic battle to gain recognition for the new state. The best hopes for the region as a whole lie in a long term opening towards EU membership, following the path of the other former Yugoslav states.
Politically that makes good sense. Economically, however, Kosovo is desperately poor. Most people are unemployed, industry virtually non-existent and the new state is highly dependent on international aid.
Its security will continue to depend on the 16,000 Nato troops stationed there, while policing will be bolstered by the new EU force approved last week. Popular expectations of improving daily life after independence seem bound to be frustrated by these grim economic realities. Kosovo deserves international support but must also show it can be viable. How the Serb minority is treated will be pivotal. This crisis feeds into the growing political polarisation between the European Union and Russia over the last year, adding arguments about sovereignty to those on energy and security which have aggravated their relations. It underlines the need for a more comprehensive framework between them, within which disagreements like this on Kosovo can be better negotiated and managed.