The steep mountain that Ireland must climb if we are to have any chance of complying with the internationally-binding Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change is now staring us in the face. Although the European Commission has not flatly rejected the Government's National Allocation Plan for carbon emissions trading, it has cut the overall total by more than six per cent, eliminated some potential loopholes and called for more information on precisely how our target of capping greenhouse gas emissions at 13 per cent above their 1990 levels by 2012 is to be met.
A similar line has been taken with other EU member states in a move designed to demonstrate that Europe remains committed to achieving its Kyoto target to cut emissions by eight per cent overall.
Ironically, the Commission made its announcement on the same day as the Dáil debated a Government motion to approve a relatively small investment of €20 million for the purchase of carbon credits in central and eastern Europe to offset Ireland's emissions. Minister for the Environment Dick Roche said he was "delighted with this development", adding that it was in line with the principles set out in the British government's Stern Review, which described emissions trading as "a powerful way of establishing co-operation across borders". However, as Labour's environment spokesman Eamon Gilmore said yesterday, "we will have to face up to our international obligations by reducing carbon emissions, not by buying our way out of the problem".
At this month's UN climate change conference in Nairobi, Mr Roche argued that Ireland had "managed to decouple" emissions from economic growth, despite the "phenomenal" success of the Irish economy since 1990. Though the economy had grown by 150 per cent, our greenhouse gas emissions had only increased by 23 per cent. This is much the same case the Bush administration makes about the declining "intensity" of US emissions, pointing out that they rose by 15.5 per cent in the period between 1990 and 2004 - far below the level of economic growth. It should be noted that the rate of increase in US emissions is lower than ours, yet it has been rendered as the Devil incarnate at climate change gatherings.
But even in the US, which is responsible for 22 per cent of emissions worldwide, the tide is turning. Twelve states and several environmental groups have taken a case to the Supreme Court aimed at requiring the US Environmental Protection Agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. That is what the Government's National Allocation Plan purports to do here, but without the level of conviction needed to have real credibility.