The Labour Party followed the lead given by the Progressive Democrats and stole a march on Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael by anticipating the dissolution of the Oireachtas yesterday, placing a broad social agenda before the electorate.
Fianna Fáil is expected to publish its manifesto this morning, after the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, travels to Áras an Uachtaráin to seek a dissolution, as he announced surprisingly in the Dáil last night that he would do. And Fine Gael may follow suit tomorrow.
The Labour Party leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, concentrated on the need to develop social services in Ireland's increasingly wealthy society when he formally launched his party's general election campaign in Dublin yesterday. The emphasis was on creating a more equal and caring society, rather than on maximising profits and economic growth. Six pledges, ranging from free GP health care for all, to better education and caring services, and improved housing and welfare payments formed the basis of Mr Quinn's approach. Any coalition arrangement involving the Labour Party after the election would, he said, require their implementation.
The Labour Party will contest this election on an independent policy platform and will make no recommendations on the transfer of votes to other parties. It is supremely confident of being returned after the election with an increased number of TDs. The situation is very different from the last general election, in1997, when the main question facing Labour was how many seats would be lost. On that occasion, too, a voting transfer pact existed between members of the outgoing Rainbow coalition government that ultimately favoured Fine Gael at the expense of the Labour Party and Democratic Left. Since then, the two smaller parties have merged. And some of the eight seats recovered by Fine Gael are now at hazard.
Mr Quinn devoted considerable effort to emphasising the cautious, conservative role he had played as a former minister for finance in the 1995-97 Rainbow government, leading up to the establishment of EMU. In view of the fiscal discipline he had exercised on that occasion, the Labour Party leader asked the public to trust him that the kind of improvements to health and social services being proposed were affordable.
Costings have already been published in a document entitled "The Politics of Choice" and further details will be provided today in a manifesto dealing with public sector enterprise, competition and regulation, transport, communication and taxation. A series of press conferences and manifesto launches will follow. The hope was that "the real story of this election will be the resurgence of Labour". But, while a gain of at least five seats was anticipated, there was a quiet realisation that, when the election is over, Fianna Fáil may have the capacity to form a minority government with the support of Independents.