THE tide has been gradually going out on the Labour Party since it scored a spectacular success in the 1992 general election campaign. But nobody realised that the ship was aground, beached on the craggy rocks of February 1990, when its national vote stood at only 10 per cent.
According to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, six years of hard slog and party building has been rolled back by an unimpressed electorate. The floating vote has gone elsewhere. And the mountain must be climbed again if Labour intends to return to government.
There has been no spectacular change. Just a gradual erosion of support which, in this particular poll, dipped a little sharper than usual. A complicating factor, for the Labour Party and the Government, is that Dick Spring's loss is John Bruton's gain. Not only has the Taoiseach's public satisfaction rating exceeded the Tanaiste's for the first time, but Fine Gael is growing at Labour's expense.
That development opens up the "appalling vista" which confronted Mr Spring when he shared power with Garret FitzGerald from 1982 to 1987. Fine Gael then had absorbed so much of Labour's liberal constituency that the party was left in an emaciated state.
That, and Mr Spring's desperate efforts to protect the party's working class base from cuts in health and welfare services, caused Labour to withdraw prematurely and acrimoniously from government.
In recent months, the Labour Party leader has insisted the Government will serve its full term. And he has spoken of the good and positive working relationship he enjoys with John Bruton and Proinsias De Rossa. But pressure from within his own party could change all that, particularly if Fine Gael continues to make gains at the Labour party's expense.
Asking Labour party backbenchers to hold their nerve is one thing. Expecting them to do so is another. For there is plenty of evidence to link their behaviour to that of lemmings when the cliff edge looms.
Since it entered Government, Fine Gael has been clawing its way back up the opinion poll graph. Traditionally, the party scores higher in general elections than in opinion polls. The latest poll has it two percentage points ahead of the 1992 election result.
This shift in public opinion is worrying for Labour TDs in Dublin and in Leinster - home of the most volatile voters - where the party fashioned its political breakthrough in 1992. From a position where it enjoyed a comfortable lead over Fine Gael in the capital before the last election, it now trails it by 11 points.
NOT alone is Labour now relegated to fourth place in Dublin - behind Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Progressive Democrats - but it has lost the confidence of 25 to 35 year olds.
This is the classic floating voter group, composed of assertive PAYE workers, wannabe home owners, newlywed couples and struggling mortgage payers. They feel that Labour and, to a lesser extent the Government, has not responded adequately to their needs.
In tandem with a drop in support for the Labour Party comes an increased level of dissatisfaction with the Government. Last November 46 per cent of those questioned were satisfied with the Government, and 44 per cent were dissatisfied. In seven months, the situation has been transformed, and the "feel good" factor eclipsed.
Now, 49 per cent of the electorate is dissatisfied, in spite of a booming economy and an exceptional job creation record. The level of unhappiness noses to 52 per cent in Dublin.
It would seem there has been a voters' backlash against wage restraint and high taxes. The Government's decision to concentrate last January's budgetary measures on the low paid and the unemployed went down like a lead balloon. The increasing militancy of workers and their opposition to the constraints of the Programme for Competitiveness and Work is clearly prompting changes in the political pecking order.
In that regard, the campaign being run by the Progressive Democrats for the abolition of the (largely Dublin based) residential property tax may account for some of that party's growth. Its promise to introduce flat income tax rates of 120 per cent and 40 per cent within five years is appealing to an overtaxed electorate.
Bertie Ahern has most cause to be pleased. There isn't a cloud on Fianna Fail's horizon, and the party has been hoovering up the lion's share of the floating vote.
The fact that the core vote stands solidly at 40 per cent (47 per cent when the undecideds are distributed) should be a cause for satisfaction. After all, when you are doing that well in the opinion polls, the tendency is to come down, rather than go up.
Mr Ahern still has to prove himself as party leader only three quarters of Fianna Fail voters are satisfied with his performance. But these reservations tend to disappear when the trappings of power become available. The northside Dubliner is shaping up to become the next Taoiseach.
THE details of the poll confirm this perception. From a time the party had an ageing profile under Charlie Haughey, Fianna Fail has been reinvigorated.
Now its greatest level of support is to be found within the 25 to 34 year old age group, where it attracts 53 per cent of all voters, and it has solid and growing support amongst 18 to 24 year olds.
Dublin will be the cockpit of the next general election. Fianna Fail has solid support there within the middle and working classes. More interestingly, it has been gaining support in the Leinster region. This development may, in part, be accounted for by the BSE crisis and the threat to farm incomes.
The Green Party failed to make capital out of the Government's political difficulties. Its vote remained stuck at 3 per cent nationally, with a 6 per cent showing in Dublin.
For the first time in ages, Democratic Left showed some signs of growth. But its performance was still within the margin of statistical error, when it scored 2 per cent nationally, and 4 per cent in Dublin.
The breakdown in the IRA's ceasefire last February hit Sinn Fein, and its support dropped back to 2 per cent.
Overall, there were no great shocks in these findings. The trends have been apparent for some time. But the hard figures provide a clear idea of the opportunities and challenges now facing the parties.
There is more than a hint of deja vu about it all. The last time the Labour Party's core vote was 8 per cent was in February 1990, when Fianna Fail shared power with the Progressive Democrats.
The relevant 1990 percentage figures (with the current showing in brackets) are Fianna Fail, 42 (40); Fine Gael, 24 (23); Labour, 8 (8); Progressive Democrats, 4 (6); Workers Party, 3 (WP plus Democratic Left, 3); Green Party 2 (3).
There is not much new under the sun. And we may be looking at a coalition system of government for some time to come.