Landmark For Blair

The Labour Party's decisive victory in the British general election gives it an historic second full term in office at a time…

The Labour Party's decisive victory in the British general election gives it an historic second full term in office at a time when the country faces crucial choices about its national and political identity. Although this was one of the most predictable election results in British political history - making for a boring campaign - its potential consequences undoubtedly make it a landmark one. Mr Tony Blair's forthcoming political agenda and the fate of the Conservatives after such a humiliating defeat will set the parameters for his second term. From an Irish perspective, his victory guarantees a welcome continuity in policy on Northern Ireland.

Mr Blair's first four years in office were marked as much by caution as by political innovation and change. He became obsessed by tactical advantage, media perceptions and the need to reaffirm his popularity with the electorate. It should be remembered that his landslide parliamentary victory in 1997 arose from a much less clearcut majority of the popular vote - 43 per cent of those actually voting, only 30 per cent of the whole electorate, on a turnout of 71.5 per cent, the lowest since 1935. Labour's overall vote in 1997 was in fact less than that of the victorious Conservatives in 1992, 1987 or 1979.

We will not know the full comparable figures for 2001 until later today (although turnout is very substantially down). Even if they paint a similar picture - an overwhelming parliamentary majority combined with a lower popular vote - it is not likely that Mr Blair will be as timid as before. During the campaign he promised a radical programme to deliver on reforms and has demonstrated a more mature determination to carry it out. If he is to dispel the vivid sense of disenchantment conveyed by the lower turnout in this election he will need to do so.

Health and educational reforms top his domestic agenda. The crucial issue facing him on the international side is whether the UK should join the euro. The clear indications from the campaign are that he has decided it should and that a referendum will be organised on the question during the next two years. Mr Blair believes opposition to the euro is wide but shallow and that it will be possible to swing opinion around once the economic conditions are right. It will be a fascinating period, with major implications for Britain's political identity and relations with Europe. In anticipation the markets are already driving the value of sterling down against the dollar and the euro.

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After his poor performance yesterday Mr William Hague's best hopes for surviving as Conservative leader will be the prospect of running and winning that referendum campaign. His party must decide whether that would revive its fortunes or reinforce its unpopularity. The Liberal Democrats' performance yesterday could foreshadow a realignment of British politics if the Conservative decline continues apace, reinforced by the consolidation of devolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Mr Blair cannot assume his strong majority will give him an easy political ride during his second term in office. His preference for tightly centralised control of party and government will face challenges from Labour's left-wing, especially if he pursues promised reforms in the public service by greater involvement of the private sector. The expected government shuffle in the next few days will indicate how Mr Blair wants to proceed after achieving his long-cherished ambition to give Labour this opportunity to reshape Britain's politics.