As we approach the European elections I have been taking a preliminary look at the implications of shifts in political allegiances which polls suggest may have taken place since the 2002 general election, writes Garret FitzGerald.
Of course, any attempt to look ahead in this way is vulnerable to the obvious possibility that yet further changes in voting patterns may occur during the two or three years between now and the next general election. And that's not all: a second widely under-estimated problem is the uncertainty that now exists about how, under our particular form of PR, votes in any election may translate into actual parliamentary seats.
In the past, the ratio of seats to votes in our constituency-based PR system has almost always slightly favoured the two larger parties. In six general elections between 1981 and 1992, Fianna Fáil secured, on average, a share of seats that was just under two percentage points higher than their share of the vote, while during that same period Fine Gael's seat "bonus" averaged almost three percentage points.
However, in the last two general elections Fianna Fáil's seat bonus rose sharply, to over seven percentage points. Fine Gael's seat bonus was also larger than usual in 1997, but in the last election, two years ago, its 23.5 per cent of the votes secured it only 18.5 per cent of the seats - five percentage points less. In other words, in 2002 Fine Gael suffered from what might be described as a negative bonus of almost five percentage points. This fluky reversal of its 1997 seat bonus cost Fine Gael no less than 15 Dáil seats.
That unprecedented outcome was not, and could not have been, foreseen. Even if one knew now what share of the vote each party would secure in the next election - instead of having to guess at that outcome on the basis of polls carried out several years in advance of that election - uncertainty as to what brought about that unprecedented negative seat bonus for Fine Gael two years ago and doubts as to whether that quirky result might be repeated, or perhaps reversed as a result of more inter-party preference voting among opposition parties, makes it impossible to project the outcome of the next election with any degree of confidence.
All one can say at this stage is that, if there were to be a movement back towards a more normal Fine Gael vote-seat ratio, then even a small increase in the Fine Gael vote could produce a disproportionately favourable result for that party.
However, if one leaves on one side this question as to whether a modification of the seat-vote ratios secured by Fine Gael - or indeed by Fianna Fáil - might affect the outcome of the next election in an unexpected way, and if one also ignores the possibility of a loss of seats by some Independent TDs (who in this Dáil lack the power to twist the arms of the Government, as some did in the last Dáil), a glance at the 43 constituencies in the light of recent polls suggests the following as a possible "neutral" outcome of the next election.
On present form, Fianna Fáil might suffer a net loss of some 10 seats to the opposition parties, and several Independents are also vulnerable. Sinn Féin would also push its present representation up from five seats to at least eight, and perhaps more.
That would leave both Fianna Fáil and the three opposition parties with about the same number of seats - perhaps 70 each - the balance of power then being held by about 25 deputies. The PDs and Sinn Féin might each win seven or eight of these - perhaps more in the case of Sinn Féin - and there would be 10 or 12 others, about half of them with a left-wing orientation and the remainder representing various local interests.
There could, of course, be a better outcome than this for Fianna Fáil if it succeeded in improving it support between now and the general election - or a worse result for it if the emergence of an alliance of opposition parties offered a convincing alternative government to the electorate.
But in all this there is a greater potential downside for Fianna Fáil than for the alternative due to the fact that the present gap between its Dáil representation and that of Fine Gael has been artificially boosted by a margin of no less than 20 seats as a result of the abnormal seat-vote ratios of these two parties in the 2002 election.
While these factors could yield an outcome quite different from the central projection suggested above, it seems on the whole improbable that either Fianna Fáil or the three-party opposition alternative will be able to secure a majority of seats in the next Dáil. Thus either alternative government is likely to be dependent on some combination of support from the other 25 or so TDs.
We must all hope that by the time the next election comes about the IRA will have abandoned violence and will have decommissioned its arms, enabling Sinn Féin belatedly to recognise the PSNI and facilitating the reconstitution of a Northern Ireland Executive. In those circumstances, Fianna Fáil might well see Sinn Féin as an alternative to the PDs, either as a partner in government or through outside Sinn Féin support for a minority Fianna Fáil government.
What I cannot see, however, is Fianna Fáil securing the simultaneous support of both Sinn Féin and the PDs, so a Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin government would probably have to depend on a number of Independents in order to secure and retain power.
Now the very possibility of such a government emerging from the next election could affect its outcome, not only by posing a problem for the PD/Fianna Fáil relationship, but also perhaps by influencing the voting of a significant minority of the electorate who are hostile to Sinn Féin.
For even if Sinn Féin had by that time jumped through all the hoops from which it has been shying away from during the past decade, it is unlikely that the IRA men currently involved with criminal gangs will all have abandoned their lucrative activities, and many voters could be put off voting for a government which would be dependent on the previous Sinn Féin partners of these still-active criminals.
I think that this Sinn Féin factor may well introduce a new and interesting element into our present political scene, perhaps even overshadowing left/right alignments.
(Note: In last week's article, the growth rate of services employment since 1971 should have been given as three times, rather than 10 times, greater than that of manufacturing employment.)