The disorderly retreat of the Israeli occupation troops in southern Lebanon and the chaotic disintegration of its proxy force, the South Lebanese Army (SLA), are dangerous developments. The retreat is welcome, in that it heralds the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty over its territory and improves the prospect of peace. But it is dangerous, in that conflict is likely to escalate as a result of the security vacuum created, if it is not rapidly filled by agreement with the United Nations and surrounding states.
The Israeli prime minister, Mr Ehud Barak, came to power last year partly because of his undertaking to withdraw troops from Lebanon. Following 22 years of violent occupation and the deaths of scores of soldiers, the idea of withdrawal appeals greatly to the Israeli public - southern Lebanon has often been described as that country's Vietnam. In recent years a much more determined resistance organised by the Hizbullah guerrilla movement has decisively tilted the military balance against Israel and the SLA, despite their immensely superior armed resources.
Mr Barak had hoped to calibrate the withdrawal with the wider Middle East peace process, but that has proved an elusive objective. There is no peace deal in sight with Syria, Israel's antagonist on the Golan Heights. The last few days have seen a grave deterioration in Gaza and the West Bank, leading to the suspension of the peace talks. And Mr Barak's coalition government may be close to collapse. It is thus a highly unpropitious and uncertain time to withdraw. And it is made all the more difficult by Israel's failure to disband and disarm the SLA militia. They are left to fend for themselves, provoking revenge and retaliations with rough and summary justice as they scatter, some to Israel, some to surrender to Hizbullah, some to continue attacking UN positions. The UN Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, must work rapidly to impose order on this volatile confusion. The mandate of the Unifil peacekeeping force is now within sight of completion if the transition from occupation to Lebanese territorial integrity is effectively managed. It must oversee the return of the Lebanese army to the border with Israel. Hizbullah is the great uncertainty in the military equation. Following their victorious resistance to Israel, it is not at all clear that they will agree to disarm and disband rather than keep up attacks on Israeli targets. If they follow the latter course, it would be especially dangerous for the region, since Israel has threatened to retaliate against Syrian targets. Irish thoughts will be very much with Unifil and its Irish contingent in coming days, as they deal with these events and are reinforced to cope with them.