The only logical interpretation of Leo Varadkar’s decision to publicly call on Fianna Fáil to extend the confidence-and-supply deal for another two years is that he is preparing the ground for an early general election.
It doesn’t necessarily mean there will be an election before the end of this year but the Taoiseach is clearly attempting to create the political room for himself to go to the country sooner rather than later if he so decides.
The brutal political reality facing Varadkar is that once the budget is out of the way, and Fianna Fáil has fulfilled its commitment to allow the measure through the Dáil, he will continue in office only for as long as the Opposition decides.
Clinging to office with a lame duck Taoiseach at the mercy of Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin is the nightmare scenario for Fine Gael TDs who remember all too vividly how Frances Fitzgerald was forced out of office in November of last year.
They have no doubt the Opposition parties will combine to pounce again the next time the Government gets caught up in a damaging controversy, real or contrived.
Fine Gael TDs are fond of quoting a maxim coined earlier in the year by the party’s elder statesman, Michael Noonan, who remarked: “Until the budget is passed Leo can decide when to call an election. After that it will be Micheál’s call.”
Biggest obstacle
The biggest obstacle facing Varadkar if he really wants to call an early election is the continuing Brexit negotiations whose outcome is so important for this country.
In his letter to Martin asking for a two-year extension of the deal, with a fixed election date in 2020, Varadkar himself cited the importance of the Brexit negotiations as the key reason why such an arrangement was necessary to ensure political stability.
Some of Varadkar's more ebullient Ministers are urging him to go for an election at the earliest possible moment, while others are cautioning patience
There is a good chance, though, that a narrow window of opportunity for an election could open up in November when the talks between the EU and the UK on the withdrawal are expected to conclude.
Those talks will either result in a deal with a transition period of two to four years or else a no-deal which will see the UK crashing out of the EU at the end of next March. Either way the road ahead should become clear and this country can ready itself for a long transition or brace itself for a no-deal Brexit.
Either scenario would give Varadkar the opportunity, if he wishes to take it, to call an election and seek a mandate for whatever lies ahead. It would certainly be a high-risk strategy but maybe not as risky as waiting to be taken down at a moment of political weakness.
From the Fianna Fáil perspective there is considerable resentment at the attempt by Varadkar to try and box the main Opposition party into backing the Government for another two years.
Working government
Martin and his colleagues rose to the occasion and ensured that the country was provided with a working government in 2016 when the general election produced a hopelessly inconclusive result. They feel that their efforts have been taken for granted by Fine Gael which, after all, ended up with the spoils of office.
Fianna Fáil is not willing to discuss the extension of the confidence-and-supply deal until after the budget is out of the way and it has fulfilled all its obligations. Party sources have indicated that they may be willing to do a deal for another year but there is no guarantee that will happen as many Fianna Fáil TDs are not in favour of any kind of formal extension.
One way or another, the ball is in Varadkar’s court. Some of his more ebullient Ministers are urging him to go for an election at the earliest possible moment, while others are cautioning patience. He has a big decision to make but ultimately it is down to him alone.
History provides him with mixed signals. His Fine Gael predecessor Enda Kenny waited too long to call the election in February 2016, while John Bruton in 1997 and Liam Cosgrave back in 1977 probably went too early.
There is one big difference this time around. Fine Gael leaders in the past had a clear majority in the Dáil with no constraints on their ability to decide the election date. Varadkar has no such luxury and could be taken down at any moment once the budget is passed.
Instead of looking at the actions of his Fine Gael predecessors Varadkar may be more inclined to take a leaf out of the book of the country’s longest serving taoiseach, Éamon de Valera. He has publicly likened himself to Dev, the son of a foreigner with a strange sounding name who dominated Irish politics in the 20th century.
On three occasions Dev shocked colleagues and opponents alike by calling snap elections in 1933, 1938 and 1944 when he did not have a clear Dáil majority. On each occasion the gamble paid off. Will Varadkar have the nerve to do something similar? We will find out soon enough.