Sir, – David McWilliams’s article “Truth is the union with Britain has been an economic calamity for Northern Ireland” (Opinion, June 18th) contains a lot of rhetorical fireworks but also some question-begging use of statistics alongside a debatable interpretation of what actually happened during the economic history of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland over the last century.
To take one example, he writes that compared to the pre-pandemic position Northern Ireland has outgrown the rest of the UK. He also asserts that the NI protocol is the “key difference” between Northern Ireland and the Great Britain. In fact, it is more relevant to consider the comparative growth rate of the Northern Ireland economy since January 1st, 2021: the period when the protocol has been in force. During that period (using latest Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency and Office for National Statistics data) Northern Ireland’s growth was less than the UK average.
David McWilliams’s article provides no recognition that the protocol in fact raises costs relating to Northern Ireland’s main economic relationship: the east-west one with the rest of the UK. Economic modelling by independent, external experts such as the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde confirms that the likely damage to the east-west connection will far outweigh any gains in terms of increased North-South trade.
Concern about the protocol is not about what David McWilliams calls “economic nihilism” or “snarling at the modern world”. It is about improving regional competitiveness. This has always been the key economic challenge but one now exacerbated by the policy mistake made by the EU and the UK government in adopting the protocol.
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It is ironic that he claims the protocol could transform Northern Ireland into a “free trade entrepot”. The continued supreme authority of the European Court of Justice makes policies such as tax devolution, freeports or benefiting from any UK free trade agreements harder to implement rather than easier. – Yours, etc,
Dr ESMOND BIRNIE,
Senior Economist,
Ulster University,
Newtowabbey,
Northern Ireland.