Sir, – Conspicuously absent from Gerard Toal’s latest plea for the West to “help” Ukraine to make peace itself is any consideration of Russian intentions or policy goals in the war, or even any acknowledgement of agency on Moscow’s part at all (“The West must help Ukraine to end this terrible war”, Opinion & Analysis, June 23rd). For there to be a “peace” that the West can “help” Ukraine to, Russia must be offering one. In fact, independent Russian media reports indicate the Kremlin has no interest in a negotiated settlement, and is still pursuing maximalist war aims in the expectation that the West will compel Ukraine to come to terms.
In reality, what Gerard Toal describes as a coalition of enlightened westerners guiding the plucky but tragically irrational Ukrainians to understand “unwelcome realities” is a demand that the West coerce Ukraine to surrender, precisely in the manner and on the terms that Vladimir Putin is demanding. He either does not realise this, or lacks the moral courage to say so out loud.
Even if western governments were willing to answer Toal’s calls to sell out Kyiv, such a “peace” would leave a number of major challenges:
Determining what further concessions Ukraine would have to secure a Russian cessation of hostilities that could be made without instantly collapsing the Ukrainian government.
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Repairing the massive damage to the Ukrainian economy, while also dealing with its de facto loss of sea-borne export routes via the Black Sea, crippling the rump Ukrainian state’s economic potential.
The fate of Ukrainians deported to Russia from the occupied territories via “filtration” camps, including children kidnapped, placed with Russian families and subject to forced Russification.
Guerilla insurgencies in the occupied territories (despite assertions that the people of the Donbas and Crimea welcome their occupation, Russia’s local proxies have been exceedingly brutal in extinguishing pro-Ukrainian sentiment, which the people of Zaporizhia and Kherson have both noted and prepared for).
Russia gaining a much improved geopolitical position for a subsequent assault on the rump Ukrainian state, with the assumption that any western resistance to this move will be partial and half-hearted at best.
A traumatised and humiliated Ukrainian population, heavily militarised due to mass mobilisation, feeling betrayed by its European partners, and seeking revenge against a country that has slaughtered thousands of their countrymen with near-impunity.
A fundamental undermining of the confidence and credibility of Nato among the Baltic states and other eastern member states, encouraging the development of new security arrangements to deter further Russian revanchism, including strong incentives toward nuclear proliferation.
Leaving aside the moral repellence of a coalition of western states determining the fate of Ukraine without Kyiv’s input, this would create a manifestly untenable situation, laying the groundwork for a continuing series of violent and destructive conflicts in order to secure an ephemeral, short-term “peace”.
Gerard Toal handwaves away these obstacles by calling for “creative solutions to insecurity and territorial claims”.
The truth of the matter is that the conditions for a diplomatic and political solution to the war do not currently exist. They will not exist until either the Russian leadership believes its goal of total Ukrainian subordination is impossible, or until it is compelled to stop trying through military defeat in the field.
The best way to secure a lasting peace is to give Ukraine the military support needed to bring those conditions about, rather than condescending lectures on the Ukrainians’ need to quit stubbornly insisting on their right to determine their own future. – Yours, etc,
DARAGH McDOWELL,
London.