Carbon emissions – the bigger picture

Sir, – I am not as optimistic as Minister for the Environment and Climate Eamon Ryan is that carbon emissions have peaked (“Climate plan: Ireland’s emissions peak despite growing economy and rising population”, News, December 21st) and that the reductions in the emissions over the last few years are necessarily a forecast of what is to come. Abnormal factors affecting emissions must be considered. In 2020, and to a lesser extent in 2021, Covid lockdowns contributed to reductions in emissions. In 2022 and 2023, the residual effects of Covid continued, with continued part-time working from home resulting in reduced commuting being one of the factors. Also, in both years, the war in Ukraine has resulted in some reduction of the use of fossil fuels.

The factors driving fossil fuel use are complex. Predictions of future use are only as good as the input data to the modelling and I don’t believe we have enough data to be accurate in our forecasts.

For power generation – and I assume Mr Ryan means electricity generation – a 50 per cent reduction in coal use was mentioned. At face value this seems significant. However, as coal only represents about 2 per cent to 3 per cent of the input to electricity generation, the actual saving in fossil fuel use is quite small, less than 2 per cent. He further states that there has been and 80 per cent reduction in fossil fuels for electricity generation. If he is referring to fossil fuels as just coal, peat and oil, then the figure of 80 per cent may be correct. Gas is also a fossil fuel. As generation from gas typically represents, on average, about 50 per cent of our electricity, I cannot see how it is possible to have an 80 per cent reduction, while still maintaining the full electricity supply. – Yours, etc,

BRENDAN MURPHY,