Letter of the Day

General election – it’s still all to play for

That all-important seat bonus

Letter of the Day
Letter of the Day
Tue Jul 16 2024 - 05:00

Sir, – Stephen Collins says that the 3 per cent seat bonus enjoyed by both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail at the recent local elections was “impressive” and “remarkable” and that it augurs well for the Government’s chances of being re-elected (Opinion & Analysis, July 12th). However, this seat bonus represents very little change from previous contests in 2014 and 2019.

In 2019, when both parties had a good result, Fianna Fail won 29 per cent of the seats with 27 per cent of the vote, and Fine Gael won 27 per cent of the seats with 25 per cent of the vote – a 2 per cent seat bonus in both cases. In 2014, Fianna Fail won 28 per cent of the seats with 26 per cent of the vote, and Fine Gael won 25 per cent of the seats with 24 per cent of the vote – a 2 per cent and 1 per cent seat bonus respectively.

There are 949 local authority seats in total, and so an additional 1 per cent seat bonus for each party relative to 2019 represents less than 10 extra seats each. The fact that the parties won 20 additional seats between them across 31 local authorities than they might otherwise have won hardly points to any kind of electoral sea-change. It would certainly be dangerous to extrapolate this minor shift as giving any indication of the result of the next general election, particularly when you consider that just seven months after winning a combined 56 per cent of the seats at the 2019 local election results, the two parties sank to just 45 per cent of the seats in the Dáil.

The Government still faces a steep uphill climb, and must be beware of any complacency which might cause them to delay a general election into next year instead of striking while the electoral iron is hot. – Yours, etc,

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BARRY WALSH,

Clontarf,

Dublin 3.