A chara, – One factor arising from the Carlow Kilkenny byelection that seems to have escaped notice and analysis is what lessons, if any, can be drawn from the transfer pattern.
It is a general assumption that Sinn Féin, for example, is transfer-toxic; but this received opinion is not borne out by the Carlow Kilkenny figures. Over seven transfers, Sinn Féin pulled in an extra 5,600 votes compared to 5,100 more for Fine Gael and 4,300 more for Fianna Fáil. And in every transfer Sinn Féin either got more votes than all other candidates or came second until Labour itself was eliminated.
Labour leader Joan Burton has expressed the view (hope?) that in the general election Labour will be more transfer-friendly, but over five transfers Labour only picked up an extra 1,100 votes, and was well behind Sinn Féin each time.
It’s also noteworthy that when Sinn Féin was eliminated 12,000 of its 16,000 votes didn’t transfer on to either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael – surely a phenomenal figure.
If this transfer pattern is repeated nationally in a general election, Sinn Féin will do considerably better than many commentators expect.
Perhaps your political analysts might factor this point in to their future calculations. – Is mise,
EOIN Ó MURCHÚ,
Baile Átha Cliath 22.