Sir, – Harry McGee casts doubt on Fine Gael's chances in the upcoming byelection in Dublin Bay South, saying that the party "won about 25 per cent of the vote in January 2020", but will need "50 per cent plus one vote" to win on this occasion ("All to play for in pivotal Dublin Bay South byelection", Analysis, May 22nd).
While it is correct to say that the quota for a byelection is 50 per cent plus one vote, it’s important to note that this target must be reached at any stage over the course of a count – not simply on the first count. A more effective means of predicting byelection outcomes would be to look at the position of the winning candidates on the first count, and the percentage vote they achieved.
Since 1994, 75 per cent of all byelections have been won by the candidate who topped the poll on the first count, reflecting the fact that our voting system makes it quite difficult to overturn a first-count lead without very strong transfers from across the board. Candidates who both topped the poll, and received 25 per cent or more of the first-preference vote, have won 83 per cent of the contests.
Starting from a base of 25 per cent of the vote, and facing a fractured opposition field with no clear front-runner, Fine Gael appear to be in an excellent position to achieve both of these targets and to win the contest. – Yours, etc,
BARRY WALSH,
Clontarf,
Dublin 3.