Madam, - The decision to conduct field work for your recent Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll on the days immediately after the Labour Party Conference raises serious questions. It stretches credulity to breaking point to suggest that this was a mere coincidence.
What was the basis of the decision to conduct the poll at this time, when even Ian McShane, managing director of TNS mrbi, admits in his commentary that "it would be fair to suggest that Labour's ratings are artificially high"? (I note that you sought to diminish this possibility in your Editorial.) Surely such an approach to opinion polling defeats the purpose, unless there is some more sinister objective?
I should also draw readers' attention to the fact that the headline-grabbing figures are entirely arbitrary. Whereas previously, party support figures were largely reported on the basis of excluding undecideds (which in this case showed Fine Gael ahead of Labour), TNS mrbi now applies a weighting to "adjust" these figures to take account of discrepancies between poll results and actual election results over time.
In a world where perception is king, and attention span short, we are now presented with results that show Labour passing Fine Gael out solely on the basis of an "adjusted figure". Given that both parties started out with the same core vote, and Fine Gael had a greater share of support when undecideds were eliminated, would The Irish Times or TNS mrbi care to offer an explanation, particularly when Labour support has actually been overstated in General Election polls - both in 2002 and 1997? How, then, does such a significant weighting come about? - Yours, etc.,
TERRY MURPHY,
Dublin Director, Fine Gael,
Mount Street,
Dublin 2.
The timing of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll was dictated solely by the first anniversary of the general election on May 17th. After months of research, TNS mrbi introduced the "adjusted" weighting into Irish Times polls in January, 2000. This system has been used for over three years - Ed., I.T.