Sir, - I am shocked by elements of your leading article of December 31st ("Ireland's role within the new monetary system seems assured"), but even more so by the cloud-cuckoo land inhabited by your Finance Editor, Cliff Taylor, in his Business article "Euro: Year of Liberty?", on January 2nd.
It is unbelievable that an economic commentator can state, on the one hand, "it now appears certain that we are going in [to EMU] on January 1st, 1999 . . . even if many of the economic questions remain unanswered"; and then admit, on the other hand, that, if things go even marginally wrong, "Irish industry will have to be able to either cut costs or accept lower profit-margins" and "the price may be paid through job losses."
It is justifiable for a private individual to take an economic gamble on his own account, secure in the knowledge that if things work out well he stands to gain and, if badly, that he can bear the loss. But I do not think any Government has the right to take such a hazardous plunge on behalf of its citizens and taxpayers without much greater certainty and assurances on the economic questions than are available so far. To proceed without clarifying these economic questions first would constitute recklessness and irresponsibility of the first order.
And what happens if things turn out worse than just "marginally wrong"? Pay-cuts to keep others in work? Special Government tax levies to bale out a ship that will sink in any case? Salaries worth 90 per cent, 80per cent, 70 per cent, perhaps 60 per cent of present levels? The Government should try selling these things to the voters, because they are the economic reality and likelihood. Britain witnessed with "Black Wednesday" the appalling consequences of government ineptitude on behalf of the people. Do we never learn?
But perhaps the biggest misjudgement of Cliff Taylor's article is his final sentence: "A British decision to join soon after the creation of the euro would remove much of the risk to Ireland of membership of the euro club". The success - or disaster - of the "euro club" depends ultimately on two things beside which Irish or British membership is irrelevant. One is the Franco-German axis, and the strains between "sound money policy" and "social expenditure" - i.e. deliberate, but necessary expenditure beyond what the "euro-club system" properly allows. The other - even assuming that France and Germany could sink their very real differences within a coherent and sustainable policy - is the strain with countries such as Italy and Spain, which will inevitably tilt the balance so far in the direction of "social expenditure" that the whole pack of cards will come tumbling down. Because the criteria for participation have not been met, and will not be met, by some countries without fudging the figures, success is very far from assured, to put matters mildly.
Why are so many people mesmerised, like rabbits in front of headlights, by the "Euro ideal"? Reason has a nasty habit of playing tricks on those who ignore what she stands for. And unless our politicians can be certain that reason stands on their side before they take the plunge, we, the people, shall pay the horrifying price of their irrationality.- Yours, etc.,
Dr Martin PulbrookNational University of Ireland, Maynooth, Co Kildare.