Sir, - So the Society of Chartered Surveyors has announced that a survey among its own members suggests that the Irish property market will not suffer the same fate as the British market of the 1980s.
It would be surprising if the societies of other bodies such as estate agents/auctioneers, valuers, architects and building contractors did not announce similar conclusions from their members.
It would be interesting to know what these opinions are based upon other than a conspiracy of complacency engendered by swollen coffers, a desire to shore up investor confidence in the property markets and a willingness to ride the gravy train to the bitter end.
The American economy is strengthening and there are signs that returned emigrants are disillusioned by the Celtic Tiger. Young Irish professional people cannot buy modest houses on what are regarded as good salaries; instead, they are handing over their money in rent to speculators.
EU structural funding is about to be diverted to competitor countries. Industry complains about labour shortages caused by its own refusal to pay the basic subsistence level minimum wage to unskilled workers. The agricultural sector will lose £200 million in EU subsidies. Our economy is dependent on the volatile computer industry, which in turn is dependent on volatile Wall Street. Irish society is awash with political and corporate corruption scandals. Irish communities are beginning to oppose indiscriminate development.
Unless the Society of Chartered Surveyors has gained control over all of the above factors and many more, or at least refers to them in its report, it is hard to see how its survey can be taken seriously.
A survey is a collection of individual opinions. To be as accurate as possible, it must gather information from a cross-section of society. Opinion polls from members of vested interests can hardly be used as a yardstick to gauge the economic stability of the country.
I run my small business with in-built safeguards and insurances against a worst possible scenario arising in the future. The Society of Chartered Surveyors obviously cannot imagine all of the cranes disappearing from the Irish skyline, bound for the next tax-incentive/structural funding economy. It cannot see a situation whereby investors flock to sell tens of thousands of houses at a loss, thereby releasing a glut of housing onto the market (at affordable prices) which in turn causes the whole unsteady caboodle to totter.
It is certain that many institutions in Britain issued survey results to buoy up investor and consumer confidence during their building boom. It is doubtful if they were around to offer their assistance after the bubble burst. By then there was a small coterie of very rich people smiling in the Caribbean sunshine.
A realistic report on what might replace the construction industry as an economic driving force when the bubble bursts would be more useful than these spurious and stupid surveys. Not alone is the king wearing new clothes, but the ostriches have their heads shoved firmly in the mortar. - Yours, etc., Thomas Herr,
Botanic Road, Glasnevin, Dublin 9.