The Peace Process

Sir - Michael O'Kennedy (March 22nd) describes the formula the IRA presented to the de Chastelain Commission as "its most forward…

Sir - Michael O'Kennedy (March 22nd) describes the formula the IRA presented to the de Chastelain Commission as "its most forward position to date". His description is very revealing since that formula did not even hold out the certain prospect that the process of decommissioning would begin by this summer and that simply is not good enough.

Without further tangible reduction in the threat of violence that the mainstream paramilitary organisations pose to the population of Northern Ireland the inclusive settlement that the Good Friday Agreement represents won't survive. Whether we like it or not the electorate in Northern Ireland will see to that. Fear of a split always seems to ensure the Republican movement's inertia, while the Loyalists remain unwilling to move in advance of the Provisionals. That leaves only one option if the constitutional compromise embodied in the Good Friday Agreement is to be saved. The SDLP needs to declare its readiness to enter into government without Sinn Fein if the Republican movement is unwilling or unable to take concrete steps to reduce the threat of violence from the Provisional IRA by the end of May. The easiest way for the Republican movement to meet such a requirement would be for the Provisional IRA to commence decommissioning, but it is conceivable that the same objective could be achieved by other means. In any event, the sooner the SDLP makes such a declaration the better, for without it this settlement looks set to go the way of Sunningdale - Yours, etc.,

Prof Adrian Guelke, Centre for the Study of Ethnic Conflict, School of Politics, Queen's University, Belfast.