Drapier: 'Beware the Ides of March". That was the stark political warning in Julius Caesar's day. However, it now appears that the long nights of November are the danger times for Irish politicians, particularly Fianna Fáil ones.
Don't we all remember November 1991 when Albert led the coup from cabinet and brought with him people like Michael Smith, Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, Noel Treacy and others.
The curse struck again in November 1992 when there was a dismal general election. Dismal for Fianna Fáil, in that several seats were lost, but, of course, the outcome then of the new liaison between Fianna Fáil and Labour led to an uneasy and unlikely coalition.
And so we come to November 1994 when Albert was toppled, Bertie became leader and Labour subsequently joined Fine Gael and Democratic Left.
Now it is November 2003, and the long nights are in again. Nights of whispering cabals, plummeting polls and plots aplenty. There is no party does plots better than Fianna Fáil. Their plots are of five-star, top-of-the-range, gilt-edged, grade A variety.
In fact it is never just one tale, but four or five tagging along. On this occasion, so the story goes, Brian Cowen is away in Africa doing his duty, Michael Smith has run amok and several others with him, Frank Fahy has become passionate (after a long silence,) rallying the troops to the cause of Community Employment and, of course, the debate on embryonic stem-cell research gallops ahead.
Of all of the above issues, the Frank Fahy/Community Employment one is the strangest. Yes, a number of Fianna Fáil deputies and senators signed the motion requesting an increase in numbers on this scheme, but a mole tells Drapier that it was Frank Fahy's antics at the parliamentary party that struck the bizarre chord.
In his words, Fianna Fáil had become a complete right-wing party, and this was now a chance for them to prove that they in fact had the interests of the people at heart.
This and many other subversive-sounding sentiments were issued in a full frontal pose to the Taoiseach and to a packed party room. Readers will remember the public scolding administered in Sligo by An Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, to John McGuinness, who had expressed the same sentiments on an RTÉ radio interview, but delivered in a milder fashion.
Of course, conspiracy theories abound, and each one you hear is wilder and more demented than the one heard just an hour previously. Somehow Drapier feels that November should be declared a "month of retreat" for Fianna Fáil politicians.
However, 2004 beckons and with it the heady aroma of King of Europe, which will descend on Bertie as January 1st dawns. All will be forgiven and forgotten.
There is an underlying tension in all the political parties in Leinster House right now, and it is based on the fact that the polling day in June will tell the tale for all, some good and some bad. Drapier is of the opinion that An Taoiseach will lie in the long grass and, come the bright days, will emerge again relatively unscathed.
Talking of elections in June, isn't it interesting how Mary Harney used a recent television interview to set out clearly her stall.
She wants to move from Enterprise, Trade and Employment and, in so declaring, made it very clear that she and the Taoiseach had already discussed the shape of a summer reshuffle. Bertie won't escape to easily from this pledge, and the belief is that, at long last, he will do a proper purge.
The bets are already starting that Mary Harney has her eyes on Health. There will be no opposition to that from Micheál Martin, who has done a good job in manning the Bearna Beal, but will be glad to escape Hawkins House and Hanly.
He has laid the ground well for whoever steps into his shoes. All the reports are published, and so there is a proper framework in place for the cudgels to be taken up again with vigour.
The Department of Finance has come up trumps again! The mandarins in that Department have one job to do. It is to say No to every monetary request put to them.
Nothing personal, you know, just business as usual. They lie in wait for the Minister for Social Community and Family Affairs, Mary Coughlan, one of the new kids on the block and one of the most popular deputies in the House.
The savings she has made will hurt, particularly in the area of education and childcare. These were expansionary measures in social welfare which gave a great edge of potential to many on social welfare, particularly women.
Mary will escape odium because of her own personality and because of the decent increases in social welfare which will be seen on Budget day, but Drapier has no doubt that Mary won't be caught again by the wily Finance officials.
The debate on embryonic stem-cell research rumbles on. The recent debate in the Seanad saw women senators Dr Mary Henry, Mary White and Geraldine Feeney by far the most outstanding contributors.
Not so in the Dáil, where the main questioners of Mary Harney were middle-aged men Gay Mitchell, John Bruton, Caoimhghin O'Caoláin and Brendan Howlin. All good men and true, no doubt, but as in previous debates on this issue, women know what it's about, while men think they know.
A more cohesive strategy is clearly developing between Fine Gael and Labour. Sure, they don't agree on all matters, but Enda Kenny, Pat Rabbitte and Trevor Sargent have sharpened their act. Their questions are stronger, more pointed, and hit the mark more regularly.
The dry wit of Pat Rabbitte is now more accentuated and well directed. Equally, Enda Kenny has been doing his homework, is well coached and gaining respect. All the opposition parties are playing the long game.
It is difficult to pin down the Taoiseach and it is always going to be so, but the weaker flanks in Cabinet are now exposed and these are being regularly and systematically attacked.