With the third opinion poll in a row showing a collapse in support for the Labour Party it is clear that the fuel price protests made last week a traumatic one for the Mr Tony Blair's government. Yesterday's Guardian/IBM poll gave the Conservatives 38 per cent against 34 per cent for Labour, a sensational 10 point swing from last month. Mr Blair's own standing appears to be in free fall. Well may he reflect on Harold Wilson's remark that a week is a long time in politics. Such volatility bespeaks either a very thin level of support or a sea-change in attitudes among the electorate over how last week's events were managed.
Many onlookers are perplexed at the ferocity of the change. Did not the government stand up to the protests, refusing to cave in to a tiny minority's illegal blockades by reducing the high taxes on fuel? Should that determination not be recognised by law-abiding citizens? Such considerations are certainly not reflected in this poll. Rather is the government blamed overwhelmingly for high fuel prices. Its attempts to blame OPEC or the oil companies is rejected by most respondents. What lingers in their minds is not resolute action by ministers but their ill-preparedness and apparent panic at the dramatic effects of the fuel blockades. A large majority says ministers are not listening; and there is a persistent feeling that its response is arrogant and out of touch.
These are potentially devastating criticisms of a government which puts such store by communications, controls and credibility. The disenchantment has much to do with the failure to make convincing arguments during last week's crisis. Thus fuel taxes in Britain are the highest in Europe, 20 per cent higher than in France, accounting for 77 per cent of unleaded petrol. They have soared much more than the price of crude oil. The government was caught wrong-footed on these facts, and its apparent refusal to contemplate an easing of the burden has infuriated many voters. There is little sympathy for ecological arguments in favour of keeping these taxes in place.
Whether this is a large blip in the record of a competent reforming government or a basic shift in political alignment is impossible to say at this stage. A great deal will depend on how the government responds. Already there are plans for ministers to tour the country arguing in favour of government plans for spending on health, education, transport and law and order, all of which figured prominently in its three year spending review announced in July. Its forthcoming party conference will be used as a platform to launch them and endeavour to reverse these severe setbacks. There is much to be said in its favour, if it adopts a candid, straight-talking approach. But it may well become more cautious on such sensitive issues as the euro.
It is equally perplexing that the Conservatives should have benefited so handsomely from the disenchantment with Labour - although the main beneficiaries appear to be the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives have opportunistically endorsed the protest leaders and appear to have cashed in on the government's unpopularity. They make an unconvincing alternative government.