The results from yesterday's first round of voting for a new leader of Britain's Conservative Party threw up some surprises. The candidate widely regarded as the front runner, Mr Ken Clarke, did not do as well as had been expected. His main rival Mr William Hague, did better than had been predicted. And so, too, did Mr John Redwood, the most right-wing of the lot, in coming third. Grassroots members of the Conservative Party who hope that the election contest will nudge the party down the road of unity and consensus will not be encouraged.
The MPs would seem to be divided into two almost equal camps. Mr Clarke, the champion of the left-wing and pro-Europe element and the centrist Mr Hague, received 90 votes between them. The three right-wing candidates collected 74. If the contest is to be won on the second ballot next Tuesday, the winner needs to reap 83 votes.
The decision by the candidates who finished fourth and fifth, Mr Peter Lilley and Mr Michael Howard, to pull out and throw their weight behind Mr Hague is significant. But because they have decided to back Mr Hague does not mean that all or even most of their supporters will do so. Many will favour Mr Redwood. Some, especially within the Lilley camp, might switch to Mr Clarke. A third round of voting tomorrow week - in which only the top two from the second count can compete - seems on the cards.
The preferences of the MPs would seem to be out of line with those of Conservative Party supporters and activists, which is not surprising; today's Tory MPs throw up more right-wing devotees than does the party at large. A poll of 900 senior constituency figures carried out by party headquarters made Mr Clarke the clear favourite. According to a Guardian/ICM opinion poll, more than twice as many Conservatives voters prefer Mr Clarke to Mr Hague. The other three candidates were further behind by a lot.
Of perhaps more consequence, the same poll showed that Mr Clarke was three times more popular than any of the others when the question was asked of all voters. It will be vital that the new leader of the party appeals to those voters who deserted the Conservatives if there are to be any expectations of winning them back.
Mr Clarke's appeal is understandable. He is a superb Commons performer, a `heavy hitter'. He is good on television. He has the most experience, being in government since 1979. He has the common touch - while his rivals were treating MPs to champagne and Pimms in select clubs and posh houses on Monday evening, Mr Clarke was offering beer and minerals at the Institution of Civil Engineers. But perhaps of most importance, Mr Clarke is undoubtedly the candidate that Mr Tony Blair fears most.
All of that does not necessarily get Mr Clarke elected. Many Tory MPs will support the candidate whose views are closest to their own even if that choice might hamper the Tories' return to power. The party rank-and-file will just have to accept their decision as will Tory MEPs and Tory peers who also have no vote. One of the first priorities for the new leader should be to make the leadership election contest a much more democratic process.