In today's developed world representative political power is rarely achieved on behalf of voting majorities. Whether because of falling electoral turnout or party, political and ideological fragmentation, in practice representatives of minorities rule, or achieve majority status only through coalitions. Northern Ireland is no exception to this rule. There too political power is constrained by similar forces, besides being obliged to follow the power-sharing arrangements laid down in the Belfast Agreement.
The publication yesterday of the latest census figures showing that the numbers of Catholics and Protestants residing there are converging does not alter that fact, but makes it all the more necessary to absorb the political lessons involved for both communities. These figures have been eagerly awaited for signs that a majority of Catholics could emerge in the relatively near future, thereby triggering a referendum which could have a majority in favour of a united Ireland. It took such a commitment to secure the support of Catholic parties for the principle of consent built into the Belfast Agreement. Having secured it, they and the still numerically stronger Protestant community need to examine these census figures in the most careful and sophisticated way if they are to remain true to the rights and opportunities achieved by the Agreement.
On a crude interpretation it would be possible to extrapolate a Catholic majority over the next generation in Northern Ireland. But it would be statistically and sociologically hazardous to do so - and politically dangerous if it is further assumed this would diminish in any way the need to make the Belfast Agreement work. Irrespective of whether Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom or becomes part of a united Ireland the Agreement lays down the necessary parameters for governing there. Both of these communities are minorities requiring their rights to be recognised and guaranteed - the Catholics in Northern Ireland, the Unionists in the UK and Ireland as a whole.
They are therefore destined to work together, and cannot assume they will be released from that political imperative by the distant prospect of achieving a legitimate majority enabling them to escape from it. Yesterday's census shows that Catholic unionists and Protestant atheists could upset political predictions based on a crude sectarian headcount, as would patterns of migration. This is not to mention the contingent flow of events, such as the accidental disclosure of a Government briefing paper saying the IRA is still recruiting actively even while Sinn Féin is working the Agreement.
The UUP walk-out from multi-party talks yesterday was to do with this, along with jitters surrounding the census figures, as Northern parties square up to Assembly elections next May. The best means of reducing the uncertainty would be for all parties to make the Agreement work.