The leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, Ian Paisley, is not prepared to implement the Belfast Agreement as it stands and has demanded a series of changes that are unacceptable to nationalists. Such position-taking could be expected in advance of tough negotiations. But the DUP leader has also set terms for sharing government with Sinn Féin that may be impossible to meet in the short term. And, because his party refuses to engage directly in negotiations, the result is confusion and delay. It is not a hopeful situation.
The Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern and the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair travelled to Northern Ireland last week in an effort to nudge the political process forward. They again warned the political parties - particularly the DUP and Sinn Féin - that if an Executive is not formed by November 24th, the Assembly will be wound up and they and their political staffs will lose their salaries and related benefits. But their real message was directed at the Northern Ireland electorate. It was, they said, the last chance for this generation to make the process work.
There was a sense of time running out in the views expressed by the two leaders. Mr Blair was unusually subdued and hesitant. And the Taoiseach spoke of the launch of a new British/Irish partnership arrangement, in December, in the event of agreement not being reached. Their attitudes reflected the considerable gloom that exists at official level over the apparent intransigence of Dr Paisley and the failure, in recent months, to make political progress.
In spite of that, there have been some positive developments. Two of the most contentious Orange marches in Belfast, the Tour of the North and Whiterock, passed off without serious disturbances last month, following intensive efforts by community-based organisations. Hopefully, they have set a pattern for the remainder of the marching season that may generate a more benign political climate.
The other matter that provides hope is the continuing inactivity of the IRA. By October, the International Monitoring Commission may be in a position to report that it has not engaged in any criminal or paramilitary activity. Such a development would exert genuine pressure on Dr Paisley to share power in the North with Sinn Féin. At the same time, Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams may be expected to clarify his party's attitude towards the Police Service of Northern Ireland.
There is no doubt that Dr Paisley and the DUP command the high ground. But power brings its own responsibilities. Without their involvement and co-operation, devolution will remain an aspiration. And it may cost Northern Ireland dearly. Inward investment is urgently required to create jobs and economic growth and to break an excessive dependence on the public sector. That investment will not materialise in a politically unstable climate where a lack of trust poisons the atmosphere and loyalist paramilitary activity and criminality remains a serious threat.