ANALYSIS:Whoever takes control after recent events will have to treat the US and Israel with some circumspection, writes MICHAEL JANSEN
THE MASSIVE popular protests in the streets of Egypt’s cities have dramatically altered the physical, political and psychological landscape of the Middle East. Egypt has always served as the geo-political bridge between the eastern (Mashreq) and western (Maghreb) wings of the Arab world. For the moment, Egypt is absent and these regions are without the connecting land bridge it forms. This disrupts trade, transit, political and economic relations and has dire psychological implications for the Arabs of north Africa and the Middle East.
For the time being, the fate of Egypt, the largest and most populous country in the Arab world, remains uncertain. No one knows whether president Hosni Mubarak, who has reigned for 30 years, will step down or fight on, risking chaos and deepening popular antagonism towards him personally and his entourage. His appointment of intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice-president and former air chief Ahmad Shafiq as premier was promptly rejected by the demonstrators gathered in their thousands in Tahrir (independence) Square in the centre of Cairo. No one knows where the essentially leaderless protests will take the country or who will impose control. The largely respected military has been gradually asserting its presence but has not taken over, risking the viability and credibility of the only functioning state institution.
A well connected source said the military is divided, with some elements remaining loyal to Mubarak and others backing change. “Mubarak must go. But he is stubborn; the people are stubborn.” The source warned that if the army breaks, there could be “civil war”.
Whether or not this happens, looting and lawlessness which erupted on Friday night can only exacerbate the anger and alienation of the majority of Egyptians, both those who have taken part in largely peaceful rallies and those who prefer to retain Mubarak rather than face uncertainty. For the revolution, to succeed, Egypt will need to emerge with an acceptable and vigorous new leadership and a comprehensive action plan for reform which will enable Egyptians to see improvements in their lives and restore the country’s sense of self-respect, diminished during the past three decades. At the moment Egypt’s standing is high with fellow Arabs because of the protesters rather than the regime.
Furthermore, if the new government capitalises on Egypt’s current star status, it could recover its position as the political capital and cultural hub of the Arab world and the 22-member Arab League, located here, could regain influence in Arab affairs. This could enable Egypt to successfully mediate between Palestinians and Israelis, Hamas and Fatah, and the sparring factions in Lebanon. Mubarak’s Egypt failed in these endeavours.
The mass protests, which have grown in intensity since last Tuesday, have shocked formerly complacent Arab leaders while inspiring and frightening citizens in other countries in the region. Following the ousting of Tunisian president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, the leaders of Yemen, Lebanon, Kuwait, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have been desperately seeking ways to mollify popular anger over decades of misrule and corruption by offering alienated citizens tax breaks, food, cash payments and jobs. These rulers are also speaking of political reform which would give the populace a say in government and a stake in their countries’ economies.
Although western satellite channels have played up the presence of veiled women and bearded men in the crowds demonstrating in Tahrir Square, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest opposition group, has played no role in organising the demonstrations which are a spontaneous expression of the popular will. The leadership of the brotherhood has said it will not seek a role in any successor regime. This means it will be all the more difficult for the US and Israel to hype the alleged threat to the West and Israel posed by such groups.
The protests in Egypt, regime change in Tunisia, al-Jazeera’s publication of documents discrediting the faltering Palestinian Authority and the designation of Hizbullah-backed Najib Mikati as Lebanon’s new prime minister rather than US-ally Saad Hariri have wrecked US regional strategy. Washington has always relied on close ties with “moderate” Arab rulers prepared to adhere more than less to Washington’s political line. This consisted of branding as “terrorist” either nationalist or Muslim political movements seeking real independence from the West and persuading them to take a soft line on Israel.
Although the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not been in the forefront of the minds of the masses marching in the streets of Cairo, Alexandria and Suez, it remains a major contributor to Arab and Muslim frustration and anger with the US. Other key factors causing deep resentment are Washington’s long-term support for undemocratic dictatorial Arab rulers, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, ill-treatment of Muslim militants in the US prison at Guantanamo Bay, and what Arabs see as the exploitation of Arab oil resources for the benefit of corrupt dynasties and politicians who invest Arab wealth in western economies rather than in the countries where the oil is located.
Whoever comes to rule Egypt following the events of the past week will have to treat the US and its ally Israel with a certain amount of circumspection. Although Egyptian and Jordanian rulers have made a “cold peace” with Israel and some Gulf governments have accepted creeping normalisation, relations could be terminated due to Israel’s refusal – documented in detail in al-Jazeera’s Palestinian Papers – to engage in fruitful negotiations which could bring about the emergence of a Palestinian state in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza. Rulers’ ears, twisted painfully by the men and women in Tahrir Square, are certain to be more in tune with the voices of their people following the events in Egypt and Tunisia.
Michael Jansen reports on affairs in the Middle East for The Irish Times